{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a25add7f-024a-442c-8770-74c636c4959f", "symbol": "9040", "name": "Global X ETF Series - Global X MSCI China ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.718, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.697, "architecture_energy": 19.168, "architecture_maturity": 99.929, "architecture_confidence": 63.499, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.06, "rotation_up": 38.46, "upward_expansion": 23.37, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 19.22, "downward_expansion": 55.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.357467, 4.283418, 4.331619, 4.394492 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.458, "trend_reference": 4.510367, "distance_from_trend": -0.01161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.909942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.435259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072409, "excess_performance": -0.038828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007475, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072409, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.297179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3417, "relative_activity": 0.083902, "balance": 1.297179, "dry_up": 1.812221, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036684, "annualized_volatility": 0.186415, "from_high_reference": -0.15408, "from_low_reference": 0.120664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.510367, "fair_value_reference": 3.909942, "structural_low": 3.978, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.011314, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002239, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.163184, "worst_return": -0.137215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.081462, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.000681, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.163258, "worst_return": -0.128293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089166, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000599, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.047283, "worst_return": -0.187047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090141, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090206, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.171375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030026, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.234, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40940.0, "trend": 12.654917, "fair_value": 31.545269, "relative_strength": -80.938997, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"direction": -65.207853, "energy": 62.228413, "activity_lines": [ 4.178933, 4.226364, 4.338943, 4.427862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.236, "volume": 172900, "typical_volume": 39800.0, "trend": 4.541433, "fair_value": 3.89784, "relative_strength": -6.811725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.793427, "energy": 49.481263, "activity_lines": [ 4.203867, 4.217491, 4.322629, 4.406935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.416, "volume": 22800, "typical_volume": 40940.0, "trend": 4.525433, "fair_value": 3.903391, "relative_strength": -6.207083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.589726, "energy": 22.977642, "activity_lines": [ 4.288267, 4.246582, 4.324695, 4.398843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.458, "volume": 3417, "typical_volume": 40725.85, "trend": 4.510367, "fair_value": 3.909942, "relative_strength": -4.435259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.697267, "energy": 19.16775, "activity_lines": [ 4.357467, 4.283418, 4.331619, 4.394492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }