{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a264783e-14f0-4e6d-9def-c2b52879828b", "symbol": "FXA", "name": "INVESCO CCY SHS AUSTRALIAN DLR TR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR SHS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.69, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.323, "architecture_energy": 13.733, "architecture_maturity": 23.196, "architecture_confidence": 69.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.04, "rotation_up": 46.02, "upward_expansion": 28.11, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 25.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.496346, 69.213468, 69.585665, 69.616785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 69.9834, "trend_reference": 69.46814, "distance_from_trend": 0.007417, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.498624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.526437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010672, "excess_performance": -0.114953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007417, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033155, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010672, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.08607, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43004, "relative_activity": 0.651414, "balance": 1.08607, "dry_up": 0.719791, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012846, "annualized_volatility": 0.073231, "from_high_reference": -0.025784, "from_low_reference": 0.110199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.46814, "fair_value_reference": 64.498624, "structural_low": 67.588255, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.007551, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.01973, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.033966, "worst_return": -0.053938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000315, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016983, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.082659, "worst_return": -0.059262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009931, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118927, "worst_return": -0.044813, "sufficient": true }, { 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64.366755, "relative_strength": -5.58927, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.113853, "energy": 49.570488, "activity_lines": [ 68.748011, 69.125368, 69.618755, 69.552741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.038851, "volume": 32893, "typical_volume": 76587.65, "trend": 69.213844, "fair_value": 64.402413, "relative_strength": -4.927009, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.965066, "energy": 32.798388, "activity_lines": [ 68.842333, 69.037162, 69.558527, 69.547559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.638161, "volume": 49938, "typical_volume": 71696.4, "trend": 69.334708, "fair_value": 64.447343, "relative_strength": -4.958982, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.700723, "energy": 10.205668, "activity_lines": [ 69.157934, 69.086467, 69.556974, 69.574934 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.9834, "volume": 43004, "typical_volume": 66016.4, "trend": 69.46814, "fair_value": 64.498624, "relative_strength": -7.526437, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.322519, "energy": 13.732664, "activity_lines": [ 69.496346, 69.213468, 69.585665, 69.616785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }