{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a26738f8-db63-4f47-8123-9a1018996fbf", "symbol": "IJPN", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.808, "architecture_energy": 32.525, "architecture_maturity": 56.478, "architecture_confidence": 89.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.68, "rotation_up": 38.58, "upward_expansion": 60.85, "deceleration": 85.39, "rotation_down": 26.59, "downward_expansion": 19.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.312042, 21.331182, 21.056287, 20.703373 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.9, "trend_reference": 20.281831, "distance_from_trend": 0.079784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.640892, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316035, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.596743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109647, "excess_performance": -0.007015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015967, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109647, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.045875, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188762, "relative_activity": 1.001885, "balance": 6.045875, "dry_up": 0.914913, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032262, "annualized_volatility": 0.196519, "from_high_reference": -0.003552, "from_low_reference": 0.304851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.281831, "fair_value_reference": 16.640892, "structural_low": 18.309999, "invalidation": "A 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052926, 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"activity_lines": [ 21.473749, 21.206086, 20.622137, 20.294395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.660627, "volume": 364213, "typical_volume": 189827.1, "trend": 19.900978, "fair_value": 16.446853, "relative_strength": 3.512659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.875449, "energy": 77.128179, "activity_lines": [ 21.572338, 21.337086, 20.757852, 20.415655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.639999, "volume": 168940, "typical_volume": 189671.4, "trend": 19.987637, "fair_value": 16.492779, "relative_strength": -2.240485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.799577, "energy": 45.28033, "activity_lines": [ 21.288343, 21.249541, 20.789795, 20.463334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.1, "volume": 213924, "typical_volume": 189490.45, "trend": 20.090853, "fair_value": 16.538715, "relative_strength": -0.026285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.090611, "energy": 34.474391, "activity_lines": [ 21.1748, 21.242997, 20.865262, 20.535099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.985001, "volume": 117877, "typical_volume": 185472.7, "trend": 20.185904, "fair_value": 16.586675, "relative_strength": -1.483259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.680371, "energy": 24.255435, "activity_lines": [ 21.076832, 21.20609, 20.921539, 20.592786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.9, "volume": 188762, "typical_volume": 188406.8, "trend": 20.281831, "fair_value": 16.640892, "relative_strength": 1.596743, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.808399, "energy": 32.525241, "activity_lines": [ 21.312042, 21.331182, 21.056287, 20.703373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }