{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a26bb7e1-da11-46e5-8904-316bb2259607", "symbol": "600877", "name": "CETC Chips Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.29, "architecture_energy": 76.737, "architecture_maturity": 38.058, "architecture_confidence": 84.299, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.23, "rotation_up": 13.84, "upward_expansion": 22.69, "deceleration": 31.45, "rotation_down": 71.86, "downward_expansion": 89.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.629333, 13.678364, 14.540095, 15.319355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.86, "trend_reference": 16.609, "distance_from_trend": -0.225721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.684359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.63901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411172, "excess_performance": -0.367968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025026, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060241, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.359138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411172, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774965, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87986603, "relative_activity": 0.915649, "balance": 0.774965, "dry_up": 1.268077, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136978, "annualized_volatility": 0.637139, "from_high_reference": -0.503667, "from_low_reference": 0.187442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.609, "fair_value_reference": 13.684359, "structural_low": 10.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.004243, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.000946, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.388177, "worst_return": -0.275821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033306, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031469, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.418319, "worst_return": -0.187277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047817, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017907, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.203022, "worst_return": -0.118235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.907333, 16.545677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.01, "volume": 167123366, "typical_volume": 96411153.35, "trend": 17.049, "fair_value": 13.72609, "relative_strength": -19.864089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.613065, "energy": 27.802598, "activity_lines": [ 15.038667, 14.973273, 15.496619, 16.213355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.89, "volume": 130673675, "typical_volume": 95198322.95, "trend": 16.922667, "fair_value": 13.707308, "relative_strength": -21.554312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.726825, "energy": 47.574817, "activity_lines": [ 13.898667, 14.390727, 15.110714, 15.880516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.13, "volume": 101624913, "typical_volume": 95768794.8, "trend": 16.765333, "fair_value": 13.692308, "relative_strength": -20.20894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.043277, "energy": 75.262839, "activity_lines": [ 12.99, 13.930909, 14.777952, 15.571312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.86, "volume": 87986603, "typical_volume": 96092092.1, "trend": 16.609, "fair_value": 13.684359, "relative_strength": -17.63901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.290443, "energy": 76.736551, "activity_lines": [ 12.629333, 13.678364, 14.540095, 15.319355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }