{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a27063b6-1cbc-4d75-b2fc-73838db3977d", "symbol": "IGL", "name": "Indraprastha Gas Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.247, "architecture_energy": 61.525, "architecture_maturity": 10.647, "architecture_confidence": 83.032, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.01, "rotation_up": 10.52, "upward_expansion": 13.34, "deceleration": 37.75, "rotation_down": 66.93, "downward_expansion": 86.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 151.726, 154.97491, 157.763287, 158.75743 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 151.940002, "trend_reference": 161.309809, "distance_from_trend": -0.058086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 198.606627, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.703418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120018, "excess_performance": -0.076309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120018, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.968555, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4779764, "relative_activity": 0.363509, "balance": 1.968555, "dry_up": 0.548208, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054429, "annualized_volatility": 0.309948, "from_high_reference": -0.307118, "from_low_reference": 0.071963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.309809, "fair_value_reference": 198.606627, "structural_low": 141.740005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.000643, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.001367, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.192784, "worst_return": -0.16362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.057877, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.001806, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.158722, "worst_return": -0.210669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.14793, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014312, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.263782, "worst_return": -0.251256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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200.328648, "relative_strength": -12.905826, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.130677, "energy": 21.594094, "activity_lines": [ 159.741336, 160.802003, 160.713478, 162.039661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 153.110001, "volume": 10286124, "typical_volume": 14577180.45, "trend": 164.997031, "fair_value": 199.815714, "relative_strength": -13.417464, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.286914, "energy": 45.814127, "activity_lines": [ 156.808002, 159.404548, 160.033002, 161.192769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.330002, "volume": 8514839, "typical_volume": 14381146.05, "trend": 163.645302, "fair_value": 199.376654, "relative_strength": -13.17279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.820895, "energy": 61.450162, "activity_lines": [ 153.308668, 157.554003, 159.07705, 160.181993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.979996, "volume": 5252727, "typical_volume": 13385078.4, "trend": 162.355415, "fair_value": 198.974234, "relative_strength": -13.460048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.492352, "energy": 64.350111, "activity_lines": [ 151.910666, 156.236001, 158.411287, 159.429393 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.940002, "volume": 4779764, "typical_volume": 13148945.3, "trend": 161.309809, "fair_value": 198.606627, "relative_strength": -13.703418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.246564, "energy": 61.525484, "activity_lines": [ 151.726, 154.97491, 157.763287, 158.75743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }