{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a273fe52-cf48-475e-82c4-d832c836ae82", "symbol": "ESREUA", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Socially Responsible UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.014, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.027, "architecture_energy": 56.115, "architecture_maturity": 66.76, "architecture_confidence": 47.195, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.23, "rotation_up": 45.69, "upward_expansion": 73.38, "deceleration": 72.96, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 13.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.796, 146.601818, 144.359905, 141.594062 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 150.339996, "trend_reference": 138.760747, "distance_from_trend": 0.083448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.11471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231137, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.30766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107762, "excess_performance": -0.06313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083448, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066547, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053077, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030584, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107762, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.6658, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1001, "relative_activity": 0.465852, "balance": 2.6658, "dry_up": 0.625829, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020487, "annualized_volatility": 0.170418, "from_high_reference": -0.003183, "from_low_reference": 0.235333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 138.760747, "fair_value_reference": 122.11471, "structural_low": 121.699997, 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"activity_lines": [ 147.04533, 145.727998, 141.586095, 139.445543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 144.100006, "volume": 1456, "typical_volume": 2198.95, "trend": 137.646927, "fair_value": 121.278158, "relative_strength": -6.656538, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.489686, "energy": 58.21184, "activity_lines": [ 146.102666, 145.734181, 142.149715, 139.881836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 144.779999, "volume": 1976, "typical_volume": 2226.2, "trend": 137.994368, "fair_value": 121.528476, "relative_strength": -5.835864, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.242204, "energy": 48.601963, "activity_lines": [ 145.497333, 145.754908, 142.755048, 140.342034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 145.380005, "volume": 946, "typical_volume": 2122.9, "trend": 138.319195, "fair_value": 121.802673, "relative_strength": -5.901457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.018621, "energy": 38.294109, "activity_lines": [ 145.288002, 145.752727, 143.357334, 140.818527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.339996, "volume": 1001, "typical_volume": 2148.75, "trend": 138.760747, "fair_value": 122.11471, "relative_strength": -5.30766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.027162, "energy": 56.114569, "activity_lines": [ 146.796, 146.601818, 144.359905, 141.594062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }