{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a279d756-d481-4b02-a88a-523ce35bf686", "symbol": "PARRO", "name": "Parrot S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.389, "architecture_energy": 9.05, "architecture_maturity": 13.379, "architecture_confidence": 75.342, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.91, "rotation_up": 30.52, "upward_expansion": 46.68, "deceleration": 74.16, "rotation_down": 27.86, "downward_expansion": 31.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.052, 10.149455, 10.212667, 9.968817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.82, "trend_reference": 9.383667, "distance_from_trend": 0.046499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.638173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.741699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.663039, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.647651, "excess_performance": 0.59434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.741699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01663, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004109, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.647651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.770165, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 325090, "relative_activity": 1.128382, "balance": 0.770165, "dry_up": 0.672012, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114366, "annualized_volatility": 0.770573, "from_high_reference": -0.260542, "from_low_reference": 0.845865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.383667, "fair_value_reference": 5.638173, "structural_low": 5.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.021257, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.04207, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.277487, "worst_return": -0.178947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004854, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.068585, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.292857, "worst_return": -0.252688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.221294, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.265261, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 2.886256, "worst_return": -0.36281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.125749, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.200851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.679443, "worst_return": -0.27686, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.208219, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184669, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094787, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.721311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058252, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.64, "volume": 34203, "typical_volume": 36054.0, "trend": 4.226333, "fair_value": 4.655449, "relative_strength": -17.862954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"relative_strength": 13.59657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.824191, "energy": 18.716565, "activity_lines": [ 10.102667, 10.162364, 10.137571, 9.62871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.84, "volume": 281523, "typical_volume": 349556.2, "trend": 9.101, "fair_value": 5.48016, "relative_strength": 15.844953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.12255, "energy": 25.826159, "activity_lines": [ 10.354667, 10.289091, 10.237238, 9.745333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.62, "volume": 163459, "typical_volume": 333078.45, "trend": 9.189667, "fair_value": 5.520353, "relative_strength": 14.306738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.694485, "energy": 36.423116, "activity_lines": [ 10.506667, 10.366727, 10.298238, 9.843333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.0, "volume": 123797, "typical_volume": 324002.3, "trend": 9.257, "fair_value": 5.558814, "relative_strength": 7.723439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.775793, "energy": 34.98143, "activity_lines": [ 10.416, 10.304, 10.28819, 9.895613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.9, "volume": 162088, "typical_volume": 323214.1, "trend": 9.328333, "fair_value": 5.598429, "relative_strength": 5.016699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.182129, "energy": 18.431016, "activity_lines": [ 10.258667, 10.219636, 10.25881, 9.937097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.82, "volume": 325090, "typical_volume": 288102.8, "trend": 9.383667, "fair_value": 5.638173, "relative_strength": 1.663039, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.388528, "energy": 9.050383, "activity_lines": [ 10.052, 10.149455, 10.212667, 9.968817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }