{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a28422e6-53d0-4841-a22d-567fc75e0b90", "symbol": "NOIDATOLL", "name": "Noida Toll Bridge Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.464, "architecture_energy": 13.211, "architecture_maturity": 48.956, "architecture_confidence": 82.458, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.01, "rotation_up": 16.56, "upward_expansion": 45.06, "deceleration": 86.31, "rotation_down": 39.04, "downward_expansion": 30.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.43, 4.583455, 4.703333, 4.494473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.36, "trend_reference": 4.243333, "distance_from_trend": 0.027494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.73141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.436067, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.681357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150396, "excess_performance": 0.194105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027494, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02653, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.436067, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08583, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026814, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060372, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150396, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.726198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 449395, "relative_activity": 0.336002, "balance": 6.726198, "dry_up": 0.352011, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166373, "annualized_volatility": 0.887262, "from_high_reference": -0.41319, "from_low_reference": 0.519164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.243333, "fair_value_reference": 7.73141, "structural_low": 2.87, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016249, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018805, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165803, "worst_return": -0.273128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033254, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.040648, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.424007, "worst_return": -0.740449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007246, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.035078, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.228169, "worst_return": -0.630397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.152174, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.182136, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.415023, "worst_return": 0.135392, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.522337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021378, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005305, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018817, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030181, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087866, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.9, "volume": 11163360, "typical_volume": 985319.25, "trend": 6.951667, "fair_value": 6.94359, "relative_strength": -12.305516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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7.804167, "relative_strength": 15.598125, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.46485, "energy": 21.586432, "activity_lines": [ 4.876, 5.086545, 4.639571, 4.402581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.73, "volume": 390131, "typical_volume": 1369272.85, "trend": 4.205333, "fair_value": 7.789936, "relative_strength": 14.375811, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.570089, "energy": 22.69172, "activity_lines": [ 4.811333, 5.038545, 4.68119, 4.436882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.7, "volume": 314446, "typical_volume": 1361671.8, "trend": 4.219333, "fair_value": 7.776795, "relative_strength": 12.784628, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.792603, "energy": 20.66074, "activity_lines": [ 4.752667, 4.967818, 4.716905, 4.468796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.32, "volume": 678099, "typical_volume": 1378895.25, "trend": 4.221667, "fair_value": 7.761218, "relative_strength": 5.825178, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.968124, "energy": 16.195631, "activity_lines": [ 4.598, 4.811091, 4.711857, 4.47529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.39, "volume": 441283, "typical_volume": 1374095.85, "trend": 4.231, "fair_value": 7.74641, "relative_strength": 4.473601, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.52609, "energy": 12.554932, "activity_lines": [ 4.504667, 4.674727, 4.711333, 4.486151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.36, "volume": 449395, "typical_volume": 1337475.4, "trend": 4.243333, "fair_value": 7.73141, "relative_strength": 2.681357, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.464187, "energy": 13.210773, "activity_lines": [ 4.43, 4.583455, 4.703333, 4.494473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }