{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a28444e9-7391-44d5-ab51-2ba3dced85d7", "symbol": "ARKO", "name": "Arko Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.454, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.178, "architecture_energy": 11.358, "architecture_maturity": 43.912, "architecture_confidence": 70.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.61, "rotation_up": 23.89, "upward_expansion": 61.02, "deceleration": 82.54, "rotation_down": 34.82, "downward_expansion": 20.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.202667, 7.533636, 7.463903, 7.116327 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.66, "trend_reference": 6.650221, "distance_from_trend": -0.1489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.899961, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.260287, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139437, "excess_performance": -0.32689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282611, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.666947, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5197116, "relative_activity": 1.188845, "balance": 1.666947, "dry_up": 0.781787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149716, "annualized_volatility": 0.718673, "from_high_reference": -0.353512, "from_low_reference": 0.551254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.650221, "fair_value_reference": 5.899961, "structural_low": 4.889165, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058685, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.017157, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.026185, "worst_return": -0.118973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188014, "worst_return": -0.06773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044784, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.518745, "worst_return": -0.075101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141573, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093306, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"relative_strength": 26.359424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.741498, "energy": 47.734779, "activity_lines": [ 7.95, 7.838028, 7.291492, 6.874126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.96, "volume": 3121545, "typical_volume": 4470500.55, "trend": 6.386859, "fair_value": 5.908775, "relative_strength": 28.927429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.97273, "energy": 47.566443, "activity_lines": [ 7.940667, 7.892188, 7.402951, 6.982236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.93, "volume": 2458314, "typical_volume": 4362031.05, "trend": 6.497992, "fair_value": 5.910379, "relative_strength": 29.53861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.51049, "energy": 45.88183, "activity_lines": [ 7.966, 7.920545, 7.503978, 7.081793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.99, "volume": 2893564, "typical_volume": 4414824.1, "trend": 6.616737, "fair_value": 5.91327, "relative_strength": 28.54953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.754771, "energy": 43.426525, "activity_lines": [ 7.982, 7.942182, 7.601446, 7.178052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.66, "volume": 5197116, "typical_volume": 4371567.1, "trend": 6.650221, "fair_value": 5.899961, "relative_strength": -13.260287, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.178443, "energy": 11.357501, "activity_lines": [ 7.202667, 7.533636, 7.463903, 7.116327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }