{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2881369-25d1-4e10-8703-497e9b5a6b29", "symbol": "MANAKALUCO", "name": "Manaksia Aluminium Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.184, "architecture_energy": 25.851, "architecture_maturity": 26.964, "architecture_confidence": 60.399, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.15, "rotation_up": 38.39, "upward_expansion": 44.18, "deceleration": 43.31, "rotation_down": 31.33, "downward_expansion": 9.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.166667, 36.99891, 36.210001, 34.697183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.48, "trend_reference": 34.705667, "distance_from_trend": 0.16638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.208745, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.713345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.273356, "excess_performance": 0.317065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.16638, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385886, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078305, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.267133, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.273356, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.443354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 730609, "relative_activity": 1.740039, "balance": 1.443354, "dry_up": 1.50166, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094824, "annualized_volatility": 0.544551, "from_high_reference": -0.405755, "from_low_reference": 0.862862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.705667, "fair_value_reference": 29.208745, "structural_low": 21.73, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.009675, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.044778, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.198225, "worst_return": -0.164634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057292, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.074586, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.324324, "worst_return": -0.136356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054861, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.049996, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.586777, "worst_return": -0.217041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070417, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.295357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.539807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.431328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0932, "active": false }, { 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36.448001, 36.758546, 35.120334, 34.200517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.23, "volume": 391981, "typical_volume": 429366.75, "trend": 34.463667, "fair_value": 29.046018, "relative_strength": 14.90095, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.73708, "energy": 9.537564, "activity_lines": [ 35.856667, 36.541637, 35.350524, 34.271183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.220001, "volume": 158521, "typical_volume": 415585.8, "trend": 34.633334, "fair_value": 29.108772, "relative_strength": 11.676186, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.082813, "energy": 9.545416, "activity_lines": [ 35.552001, 36.307092, 35.551096, 34.319979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.48, "volume": 730609, "typical_volume": 419880.75, "trend": 34.705667, "fair_value": 29.208745, "relative_strength": 26.713345, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.184396, "energy": 25.85062, "activity_lines": [ 37.166667, 36.99891, 36.210001, 34.697183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }