{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a288757b-d616-4382-bc33-ec1a048d268e", "symbol": "6684", "name": "Algoltek, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.262, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.432, "architecture_energy": 14.16, "architecture_maturity": 17.286, "architecture_confidence": 59.968, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.74, "rotation_up": 13.23, "upward_expansion": 19.96, "deceleration": 76.34, "rotation_down": 53.43, "downward_expansion": 32.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.856666, 50.282727, 50.044285, 49.143333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.049999, "trend_reference": 48.376666, "distance_from_trend": -0.006753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.274679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.672905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015856, "excess_performance": -0.425516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005516, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041974, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346729, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091527, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015856, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.722034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 742038, "relative_activity": 0.256377, "balance": 1.722034, "dry_up": 0.27059, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140559, "annualized_volatility": 0.474168, "from_high_reference": -0.29854, "from_low_reference": 0.179141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.376666, "fair_value_reference": 63.274679, "structural_low": 40.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.010045, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.022741, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.252354, "worst_return": -0.22427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.134178, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.166927, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.326434, "worst_return": -0.398425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.142144, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.17843, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.755814, "worst_return": -0.234498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.194928, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.338419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.352508, "worst_return": -0.601417, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019656, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205186, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057426, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015856, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 46.349998, "volume": 1527000, "typical_volume": 877000.0, "trend": 48.353174, "fair_value": 77.152691, "relative_strength": -13.301087, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", 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61.661021, "energy": 67.446725, "activity_lines": [ 56.246667, 53.194546, 50.26, 49.296882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.349998, "volume": 1898685, "typical_volume": 2892519.55, "trend": 48.76, "fair_value": 63.309555, "relative_strength": -32.124514, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.227494, "energy": 54.410619, "activity_lines": [ 54.323333, 52.89, 50.347857, 49.329247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.25, "volume": 852512, "typical_volume": 2893510.2, "trend": 48.675, "fair_value": 63.323095, "relative_strength": -32.850898, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.699431, "energy": 21.331174, "activity_lines": [ 52.39, 52.551818, 50.420238, 49.36086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.849998, "volume": 1039748, "typical_volume": 2913699.35, "trend": 48.513333, "fair_value": 63.310256, "relative_strength": -34.313114, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.642269, "energy": 16.7369, "activity_lines": [ 49.739999, 51.702727, 50.248095, 49.243118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.299999, "volume": 498409, "typical_volume": 2890326.65, "trend": 48.383333, "fair_value": 63.292949, "relative_strength": -34.379302, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.771961, "energy": 15.850225, "activity_lines": [ 48.283332, 50.951818, 50.114047, 49.164838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 48.049999, "volume": 742038, "typical_volume": 2894328.65, "trend": 48.376666, "fair_value": 63.274679, "relative_strength": -34.672905, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.431992, "energy": 14.159604, "activity_lines": [ 47.856666, 50.282727, 50.044285, 49.143333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }