{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a29187c1-59f6-46e9-82aa-38c23dc4899e", "symbol": "4005", "name": "National Medical Care Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.337, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 13.93, "architecture_energy": 22.526, "architecture_maturity": 27.643, "architecture_confidence": 58.102, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.89, "rotation_up": 43.63, "upward_expansion": 33.82, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 14.29, "downward_expansion": 42.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.999998, 113.025453, 110.948922, 114.531016 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 125.199997, "trend_reference": 121.735978, "distance_from_trend": 0.028455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 154.534262, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.189824, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.919494, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.182153, "excess_performance": -0.150323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.189824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063088, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159643, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182153, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.082126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 625643, "relative_activity": 0.882117, "balance": 1.082126, "dry_up": 0.839317, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072069, "annualized_volatility": 0.505659, "from_high_reference": -0.300261, "from_low_reference": 0.319283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.735978, "fair_value_reference": 154.534262, "structural_low": 94.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025746, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01384, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.1952, "worst_return": -0.141144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019349, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1664, "worst_return": -0.173116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025561, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.12659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168, "worst_return": -0.354413, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 113.599998, "volume": 632478, "typical_volume": 823099.25, "trend": 124.819578, "fair_value": 154.835523, "relative_strength": -17.513189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.389562, "energy": 28.313288, "activity_lines": [ 108.199998, 105.855453, 110.426829, 116.584509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 109.199997, "volume": 461021, "typical_volume": 744049.0, "trend": 123.974291, "fair_value": 154.738408, "relative_strength": -19.420345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.227845, "energy": 24.711066, "activity_lines": [ 109.006664, 106.617271, 109.868722, 115.576794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 115.0, "volume": 891103, "typical_volume": 721956.2, "trend": 123.159828, "fair_value": 154.668707, "relative_strength": -15.19381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.089377, "energy": 21.00492, "activity_lines": [ 111.199998, 108.549999, 109.921068, 114.997808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.0, "volume": 403382, "typical_volume": 695154.3, "trend": 122.275447, "fair_value": 154.581303, "relative_strength": -14.497746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.224656, "energy": 20.879055, "activity_lines": [ 112.326666, 109.813635, 109.826857, 114.342335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.199997, "volume": 625643, "typical_volume": 709251.7, "trend": 121.735978, "fair_value": 154.534262, "relative_strength": -6.919494, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.930108, "energy": 22.526175, "activity_lines": [ 116.999998, 113.025453, 110.948922, 114.531016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }