{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a29a00e5-713b-4451-b509-f1c9ce9ad3eb", "symbol": "VNGA80", "name": "Vanguard LifeStrategy 80% Equity UCITS ETF (EUR) Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.709, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.99, "architecture_energy": 53.882, "architecture_maturity": 89.652, "architecture_confidence": 49.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.4, "rotation_up": 46.79, "upward_expansion": 75.33, "deceleration": 71.44, "rotation_down": 29.43, "downward_expansion": 13.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.536333, 43.514182, 43.069905, 42.360763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.220001, "trend_reference": 41.519666, "distance_from_trend": 0.065037, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.769038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236265, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.719259, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107161, "excess_performance": -0.063731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065037, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03595, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016061, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021505, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107161, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.383706, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150744, "relative_activity": 1.504738, "balance": 1.383706, "dry_up": 1.262698, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01643, "annualized_volatility": 0.092888, "from_high_reference": -0.002481, "from_low_reference": 0.197401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.519666, "fair_value_reference": 35.769038, "structural_low": 38.200001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.013097, "positive_rate": 0.677419, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.001636, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.04897, "worst_return": -0.071277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031824, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.010195, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.081623, "worst_return": -0.038278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087208, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.031619, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.118678, "worst_return": -0.035815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 43.720001, "volume": 146106, "typical_volume": 96246.6, "trend": 40.994333, "fair_value": 35.40375, "relative_strength": -5.43118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.341738, "energy": 80.886131, "activity_lines": [ 43.644334, 43.397818, 42.453143, 41.784935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.215, "volume": 155064, "typical_volume": 98365.85, "trend": 41.130166, "fair_value": 35.494167, "relative_strength": -5.058685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.189783, "energy": 63.435925, "activity_lines": [ 43.532334, 43.412091, 42.608786, 41.928204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.244999, "volume": 96216, "typical_volume": 97868.3, "trend": 41.262166, "fair_value": 35.581731, "relative_strength": -4.710843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.403943, "energy": 58.693633, "activity_lines": [ 43.419667, 43.412909, 42.754143, 42.064645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.014999, "volume": 103962, "typical_volume": 98046.35, "trend": 41.383, "fair_value": 35.670897, "relative_strength": -5.708288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.832748, "energy": 43.078799, "activity_lines": [ 43.264666, 43.357091, 42.862619, 42.177731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.220001, "volume": 150744, "typical_volume": 100179.55, "trend": 41.519666, "fair_value": 35.769038, "relative_strength": -5.719259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.990236, "energy": 53.881986, "activity_lines": [ 43.536333, 43.514182, 43.069905, 42.360763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }