{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2a1354d-a30b-4b3a-8246-84972ef8861a", "symbol": "BELFA", "name": "Bel Fuse A Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.251, "architecture_energy": 11.286, "architecture_maturity": 16.449, "architecture_confidence": 72.985, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.48, "rotation_up": 19.18, "upward_expansion": 40.19, "deceleration": 81.86, "rotation_down": 35.22, "downward_expansion": 34.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 229.77801, 235.494352, 239.909341, 233.275686 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 233.55, "trend_reference": 222.686384, "distance_from_trend": 0.048784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 111.490926, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.094789, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.880318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134988, "excess_performance": -0.052466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.094789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672215, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.128803, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.41811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134988, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.072049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 917960, "relative_activity": 1.396868, "balance": 1.072049, "dry_up": 1.353392, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140138, "annualized_volatility": 0.561013, "from_high_reference": -0.204079, "from_low_reference": 1.174779 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 222.686384, "fair_value_reference": 111.490926, "structural_low": 160.94554, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059048, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.020279, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.11455, "worst_return": -0.069206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.364781, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.30858, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.466506, "worst_return": -0.029551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.359583, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.330155, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394716, "worst_return": 0.32445, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 243.856399, 246.240961, 240.641844, 229.974093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 228.73, "volume": 937208, "typical_volume": 584896.45, "trend": 215.628638, "fair_value": 108.092344, "relative_strength": 18.043706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.223912, "energy": 16.132912, "activity_lines": [ 236.611507, 242.778536, 240.626613, 230.982618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 233.15, "volume": 769370, "typical_volume": 613966.75, "trend": 218.157178, "fair_value": 109.197429, "relative_strength": 21.054932, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.408334, "energy": 15.459529, "activity_lines": [ 233.008073, 240.785929, 240.95215, 232.113029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 223.13, "volume": 933020, "typical_volume": 633332.05, "trend": 220.501626, "fair_value": 110.305485, "relative_strength": 14.264378, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.434128, "energy": 13.103123, "activity_lines": [ 228.234685, 236.927323, 240.036459, 232.433856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 233.55, "volume": 917960, "typical_volume": 657155.7, "trend": 222.686384, "fair_value": 111.490926, "relative_strength": 12.880318, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.25059, "energy": 11.285769, "activity_lines": [ 229.77801, 235.494352, 239.909341, 233.275686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }