{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2a77924-4e61-41ad-8e57-3d087869d243", "symbol": "JREE", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - EUR (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.584, "architecture_energy": 75.495, "architecture_maturity": 39.499, "architecture_confidence": 81.509, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 65.25, "upward_expansion": 88.34, "deceleration": 51.66, "rotation_down": 21.62, "downward_expansion": 15.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.535333, 56.143636, 55.037048, 54.178086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 57.439999, "trend_reference": 53.294833, "distance_from_trend": 0.077778, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.096699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273707, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.380906, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093262, "excess_performance": -0.077629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04197, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070541, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093262, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.461075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36735, "relative_activity": 0.717487, "balance": 2.461075, "dry_up": 0.863572, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019164, "annualized_volatility": 0.148797, "from_high_reference": -0.004334, "from_low_reference": 0.263945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.294833, "fair_value_reference": 45.096699, "structural_low": 47.615002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.014605, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.006136, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.074502, "worst_return": -0.105534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022302, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.025584, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.084167, "worst_return": -0.053702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.058359, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.028048, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175524, "worst_return": -0.119324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -4.612166, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.722154, "energy": 83.034296, "activity_lines": [ 55.760666, 55.007273, 53.814333, 53.24928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.700001, "volume": 33145, "typical_volume": 60245.05, "trend": 52.6905, "fair_value": 44.73032, "relative_strength": -3.180247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.120535, "energy": 80.134628, "activity_lines": [ 55.820667, 55.259455, 54.077119, 53.456312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.0, "volume": 69887, "typical_volume": 58374.75, "trend": 52.8965, "fair_value": 44.844455, "relative_strength": -2.426653, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.788511, "energy": 75.893034, "activity_lines": [ 55.914, 55.507818, 54.360762, 53.669828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.43, "volume": 37091, "typical_volume": 53337.9, "trend": 53.0955, "fair_value": 44.967788, "relative_strength": -2.318107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.835281, "energy": 60.82254, "activity_lines": [ 56.094667, 55.758727, 54.664119, 53.897796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.439999, "volume": 36735, "typical_volume": 51199.55, "trend": 53.294833, "fair_value": 45.096699, "relative_strength": -3.380906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.584497, "energy": 75.494788, "activity_lines": [ 56.535333, 56.143636, 55.037048, 54.178086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }