{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2aa1f77-463b-44e7-a7bc-558196662ca2", "symbol": "002733", "name": "Shenzhen Center Power Tech. Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.768, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.202, "architecture_energy": 74.214, "architecture_maturity": 25.903, "architecture_confidence": 68.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.24, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 25.94, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 75.82, "downward_expansion": 67.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.638, 22.577636, 26.037804, 26.330725 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.34, "trend_reference": 25.745194, "distance_from_trend": -0.248792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.185033, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125398, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.282146, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038767, "excess_performance": -0.046167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.248792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.65938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038767, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.34318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66244434, "relative_activity": 0.612721, "balance": 1.34318, "dry_up": 0.663118, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21717, "annualized_volatility": 0.780893, "from_high_reference": -0.490785, "from_low_reference": 0.211779 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.745194, "fair_value_reference": 17.185033, "structural_low": 16.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.14788, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.149822, "worst_return": 0.051712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.101169, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135752, "worst_return": 0.066587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.132269, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.61115, "worst_return": -0.346611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035676, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.278382, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.70909, "energy": 40.738666, "activity_lines": [ 24.776667, 28.292753, 28.947887, 27.834999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 82764025, "typical_volume": 128272237.8, "trend": 25.862527, "fair_value": 17.165065, "relative_strength": -24.488812, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.841679, "energy": 51.077023, "activity_lines": [ 21.427334, 26.143368, 27.905907, 27.30475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.18, "volume": 65768959, "typical_volume": 115701322.35, "trend": 25.754861, "fair_value": 17.166555, "relative_strength": -25.467379, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.31261, "energy": 74.068923, "activity_lines": [ 19.064, 24.068887, 26.844737, 26.744587 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.34, "volume": 66244434, "typical_volume": 108115158.4, "trend": 25.745194, "fair_value": 17.185033, "relative_strength": -20.282146, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.201793, "energy": 74.214487, "activity_lines": [ 18.638, 22.577636, 26.037804, 26.330725 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }