{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2ad5385-a6d6-4291-806b-1c2819184f42", "symbol": "603908", "name": "Comefly Outdoor Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.22, "architecture_energy": 56.243, "architecture_maturity": 87.038, "architecture_confidence": 94.406, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 25.06, "upward_expansion": 9.71, "deceleration": 60.73, "rotation_down": 55.14, "downward_expansion": 83.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.386, 17.582909, 19.134047, 20.317677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.200001, "trend_reference": 21.810333, "distance_from_trend": -0.165533, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.633562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.289993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.611253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.265833, "excess_performance": -0.222629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.289993, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113673, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5247542, "relative_activity": 0.91154, "balance": 0.253838, "dry_up": 1.192552, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090533, "annualized_volatility": 0.345447, "from_high_reference": -0.356663, "from_low_reference": 0.17268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.810333, "fair_value_reference": 25.633562, "structural_low": 15.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.058, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.026166, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.248899, "worst_return": -0.153245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.094006, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.047124, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.316982, "worst_return": -0.341849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.225654, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.245828, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.205963, "worst_return": -0.391143, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-17", "close": 17.23, "volume": 7279837, "typical_volume": 5878773.05, "trend": 22.437, "fair_value": 26.098776, "relative_strength": -23.534321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.261582, "energy": 86.372556, "activity_lines": [ 17.566666, 18.462727, 20.219428, 21.283677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.87, "volume": 8399307, "typical_volume": 5933628.1, "trend": 22.174, "fair_value": 25.929965, "relative_strength": -29.811764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.465038, "energy": 74.762623, "activity_lines": [ 16.952, 17.806545, 19.689952, 20.86 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.549999, "volume": 6534394, "typical_volume": 5880075.7, "trend": 21.982, "fair_value": 25.776129, "relative_strength": -22.013037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.348768, "energy": 63.519687, "activity_lines": [ 17.067333, 17.589454, 19.363333, 20.561677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 5247542, "typical_volume": 5756787.85, "trend": 21.810333, "fair_value": 25.633562, "relative_strength": -20.611253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.219879, "energy": 56.242799, "activity_lines": [ 17.386, 17.582909, 19.134047, 20.317677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }