{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2bcaf05-fa40-482d-a931-d8b1648e53ff", "symbol": "NDQ3S", "name": "SG ETN Daily Short -3X NASDAQ", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.057, "architecture_energy": 43.716, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.579, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.04, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 24.87, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 36.78, "downward_expansion": 63.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.594913, 0.583004, 0.618758, 0.703757 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.5395, "trend_reference": 0.801323, "distance_from_trend": -0.326739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.900259, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.813982, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.020527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.402878, "excess_performance": -0.582771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.326739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.813982, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.510205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.402878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.686189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17000, "relative_activity": 0.056383, "balance": 1.686189, "dry_up": 0.044609, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123633, "annualized_volatility": 0.647096, "from_high_reference": -0.612317, "from_low_reference": 0.053711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.801323, "fair_value_reference": 2.900259, "structural_low": 0.512, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.021262, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.053556, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.161748, "worst_return": -0.271761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.171929, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.172687, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.222361, "worst_return": -0.444501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.375724, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.416179, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.053638, "worst_return": -0.445625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 0.6105, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 334241.0, "trend": 0.837823, "fair_value": 3.017666, "relative_strength": -46.038176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.253941, "energy": 58.491748, "activity_lines": [ 0.570593, 0.566407, 0.66234, 0.746892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6259, "volume": 31800, "typical_volume": 332961.0, "trend": 0.82647, "fair_value": 2.978371, "relative_strength": -43.478028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.312095, "energy": 51.797323, "activity_lines": [ 0.591487, 0.576569, 0.648183, 0.733219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6461, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 315807.35, "trend": 0.81579, "fair_value": 2.941397, "relative_strength": -40.979289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.952255, "energy": 42.599921, "activity_lines": [ 0.615187, 0.589969, 0.637667, 0.721582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5395, "volume": 17000, "typical_volume": 301506.65, "trend": 0.801323, "fair_value": 2.900259, "relative_strength": -51.020527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.056741, "energy": 43.715618, "activity_lines": [ 0.594913, 0.583004, 0.618758, 0.703757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }