{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2c6fc92-c8f7-4cc4-818d-db68d914264a", "symbol": "600166", "name": "Beiqi Foton Motor Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.251, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.739, "architecture_energy": 24.149, "architecture_maturity": 4.441, "architecture_confidence": 50.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.24, "rotation_up": 27.65, "upward_expansion": 13.47, "deceleration": 47.82, "rotation_down": 43.84, "downward_expansion": 48.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.044, 3.056, 3.126714, 3.140172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.04, "trend_reference": 3.135667, "distance_from_trend": -0.030509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.800321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.387502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030508, "excess_performance": 0.073712, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030509, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021834, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023875, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 590986160, "relative_activity": 0.761283, "balance": 0.939342, "dry_up": 0.934627, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075911, "annualized_volatility": 0.370788, "from_high_reference": -0.212435, "from_low_reference": 0.155894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.135667, "fair_value_reference": 2.800321, "structural_low": 2.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.004602, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.023096, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.176667, "worst_return": -0.107612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.050189, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010485, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.234875, "worst_return": -0.175824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050676, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.071249, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.392453, "worst_return": -0.121294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09739, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039342, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.314961, "worst_return": -0.274933, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016807, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031496, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003788, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015326, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007246, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090566, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 3.115333, 3.110364, 3.186381, 3.167763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.92, "volume": 707388054, "typical_volume": 769024551.8, "trend": 3.119667, "fair_value": 2.811154, "relative_strength": 3.053822, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.568212, "energy": 18.937121, "activity_lines": [ 3.052667, 3.066, 3.16119, 3.15529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.95, "volume": 868422053, "typical_volume": 778249345.05, "trend": 3.123, "fair_value": 2.807308, "relative_strength": 2.788476, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.903857, "energy": 26.406777, "activity_lines": [ 3.012, 3.039636, 3.14019, 3.144344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.15, "volume": 735417631, "typical_volume": 783793942.35, "trend": 3.131667, "fair_value": 2.804487, "relative_strength": 9.128168, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.018565, "energy": 16.836247, "activity_lines": [ 3.051333, 3.058, 3.138857, 3.146086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.04, "volume": 590986160, "typical_volume": 776302843.25, "trend": 3.135667, "fair_value": 2.800321, "relative_strength": 2.387502, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.738763, "energy": 24.148697, "activity_lines": [ 3.044, 3.056, 3.126714, 3.140172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }