{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2cf923a-e269-4bda-aad9-db30cd35a57d", "symbol": "ALSEA", "name": "Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.528, "architecture_energy": 80.708, "architecture_maturity": 28.69, "architecture_confidence": 90.978, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.84, "rotation_up": 13.11, "upward_expansion": 18.92, "deceleration": 39.42, "rotation_down": 72.4, "downward_expansion": 92.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.745332, 43.042727, 46.174594, 48.564829 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.759998, "trend_reference": 51.153008, "distance_from_trend": -0.183626, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.630565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.054104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21651, "excess_performance": -0.161844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038934, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 38.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.022505, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.006191, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.171573, "worst_return": -0.139463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000342, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035213, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.242597, "worst_return": -0.132511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.136315, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001778, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.299312, "worst_return": -0.208999, "sufficient": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.208839, "energy": 94.915172, "activity_lines": [ 43.683333, 45.809818, 48.704692, 50.580884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.66, "volume": 7590982, "typical_volume": 5245472.45, "trend": 51.885819, "fair_value": 53.834716, "relative_strength": -23.677732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.486525, "energy": 92.368552, "activity_lines": [ 42.427333, 44.535091, 47.711238, 49.825489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.119999, "volume": 3459895, "typical_volume": 4926464.0, "trend": 51.534405, "fair_value": 53.74699, "relative_strength": -20.996252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.807224, "energy": 83.972296, "activity_lines": [ 42.071333, 43.735091, 46.928746, 49.195436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.759998, "volume": 3226101, "typical_volume": 3916524.8, "trend": 51.153008, "fair_value": 53.630565, "relative_strength": -21.054104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.527619, "energy": 80.707782, "activity_lines": [ 41.745332, 43.042727, 46.174594, 48.564829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }