{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2d293a0-1c0a-4c13-aeaf-686a6bf783e5", "symbol": "TRUE", "name": "Truetide plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 87.789, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.447, "architecture_energy": 26.413, "architecture_maturity": 63.568, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.49, "rotation_up": 28.36, "upward_expansion": 56.26, "deceleration": 89.68, "rotation_down": 27.05, "downward_expansion": 19.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.031633, 0.0322, 0.030557, 0.028104 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0335, "trend_reference": 0.025667, "distance_from_trend": 0.305195, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.047245, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290933, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.405449, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.425532, "excess_performance": 0.374297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.305195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290933, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.314054, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.425532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.646916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 763100, "relative_activity": 0.975964, "balance": 3.646916, "dry_up": 0.556472, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135362, "annualized_volatility": 0.770305, "from_high_reference": -0.118421, "from_low_reference": 1.233333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.025667, "fair_value_reference": 0.047245, "structural_low": 0.015, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.081633, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.074437, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.075472, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.245283, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.245283, "worst_return": -0.245283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.358491, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.332159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.358491, "worst_return": -0.358491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.4375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085106, "active": 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"trend": 0.024033, "fair_value": 0.050014, "relative_strength": 30.034385, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.607773, "energy": 50.108097, "activity_lines": [ 0.033267, 0.033064, 0.028457, 0.026371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.031, "volume": 469435, "typical_volume": 748230.15, "trend": 0.024467, "fair_value": 0.049364, "relative_strength": 26.398097, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.934835, "energy": 36.186015, "activity_lines": [ 0.0324, 0.032882, 0.029014, 0.02682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0305, "volume": 282061, "typical_volume": 751674.85, "trend": 0.024867, "fair_value": 0.048614, "relative_strength": 22.406079, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.608775, "energy": 24.9009, "activity_lines": [ 0.031367, 0.0325, 0.029479, 0.02721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0305, "volume": 225811, "typical_volume": 757340.45, "trend": 0.025267, "fair_value": 0.04788, "relative_strength": 20.595461, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.814104, "energy": 21.71337, "activity_lines": [ 0.0308, 0.032064, 0.029898, 0.027573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0335, "volume": 763100, "typical_volume": 781893.25, "trend": 0.025667, "fair_value": 0.047245, "relative_strength": 31.405449, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.447155, "energy": 26.41336, "activity_lines": [ 0.031633, 0.0322, 0.030557, 0.028104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }