{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2d5dd4f-1137-471a-b66b-cff6f95a4e0e", "symbol": "TOURN", "name": "Tourn International AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.446, "architecture_energy": 39.636, "architecture_maturity": 38.033, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.09, "rotation_up": 54.94, "upward_expansion": 80.44, "deceleration": 49.18, "rotation_down": 14.49, "downward_expansion": 7.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.388, 6.177455, 5.991333, 5.873527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.56, "trend_reference": 5.581, "distance_from_trend": 0.175417, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.113718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077838, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.282732, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.383966, "excess_performance": 0.322472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.175417, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169776, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077838, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.35662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182827, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.399754, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.383966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.141601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65935, "relative_activity": 0.937289, "balance": 8.141601, "dry_up": 0.485401, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.218222, "annualized_volatility": 1.044549, "from_high_reference": -0.531429, "from_low_reference": 2.109005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.581, "fair_value_reference": 7.113718, "structural_low": 3.71, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025243, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.040019, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.574751, "worst_return": -0.203187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.067961, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004753, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.039867, "worst_return": -0.573379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050147, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.05275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.348837, "worst_return": -0.248544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.38193, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.190608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054374, "active": 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5.586753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.76, "volume": 18890, "typical_volume": 68629.15, "trend": 5.261333, "fair_value": 7.2, "relative_strength": 7.964461, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.906698, "energy": 12.864225, "activity_lines": [ 5.816, 5.737818, 5.788286, 5.625527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.96, "volume": 42124, "typical_volume": 67888.5, "trend": 5.360333, "fair_value": 7.175128, "relative_strength": 12.543175, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.824768, "energy": 16.192359, "activity_lines": [ 5.833333, 5.827273, 5.805333, 5.670602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.26, "volume": 10403, "typical_volume": 66987.9, "trend": 5.442667, "fair_value": 7.154359, "relative_strength": 16.599681, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.970274, "energy": 19.693859, "activity_lines": [ 5.974667, 5.939818, 5.846952, 5.728645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.64, "volume": 18123, "typical_volume": 67855.45, "trend": 5.511667, "fair_value": 7.135128, "relative_strength": 21.93041, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.229394, "energy": 32.792116, "activity_lines": [ 6.222667, 6.083273, 5.925905, 5.805892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.56, "volume": 65935, "typical_volume": 70346.5, "trend": 5.581, "fair_value": 7.113718, "relative_strength": 18.282732, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.44584, "energy": 39.63574, "activity_lines": [ 6.388, 6.177455, 5.991333, 5.873527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }