{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2dd95f8-5ae4-41ce-880d-470789f93d2d", "symbol": "NNY", "name": "Nuveen New York Municipal Value Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.572, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.407, "architecture_energy": 27.626, "architecture_maturity": 35.466, "architecture_confidence": 64.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.92, "rotation_up": 17.31, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 65.22, "rotation_down": 60.32, "downward_expansion": 40.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.376711, 8.486103, 8.506117, 8.492774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.31, "trend_reference": 8.472992, "distance_from_trend": -0.019237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.854386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.147355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002995, "excess_performance": -0.12862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008605, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030779, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.03835, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 255906, "relative_activity": 1.647673, "balance": 1.03835, "dry_up": 1.361349, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0267, "annualized_volatility": 0.123073, "from_high_reference": -0.059961, "from_low_reference": 0.075379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.472992, "fair_value_reference": 7.854386, "structural_low": 8.076135, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002075, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.039458, "worst_return": -0.046607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009022, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031236, "worst_return": -0.02395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003817, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048705, "worst_return": -0.062999, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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8.523609, 8.503577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.31, "volume": 255906, "typical_volume": 155313.55, "trend": 8.472992, "fair_value": 7.854386, "relative_strength": -11.147355, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.406512, "energy": 27.626464, "activity_lines": [ 8.376711, 8.486103, 8.506117, 8.492774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }