{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2de97c1-eed2-4501-9223-b0a526dc47a8", "symbol": "FDXB34", "name": "FedEx Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.444, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.471, "architecture_energy": 84.451, "architecture_maturity": 15.178, "architecture_confidence": 88.954, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.15, "rotation_up": 16.21, "upward_expansion": 21.13, "deceleration": 37.45, "rotation_down": 73.93, "downward_expansion": 99.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 1599.47264, 1621.956967, 1711.820344, 1760.308613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1593.209961, "trend_reference": 1799.669474, "distance_from_trend": -0.114721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1445.420146, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.022807, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17284, "excess_performance": -0.115792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025226, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.102247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109254, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17284, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.801802, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.801802, "dry_up": 0.02924, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042167, "annualized_volatility": 0.389702, "from_high_reference": -0.232921, "from_low_reference": 0.321968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1799.669474, "fair_value_reference": 1445.420146, "structural_low": 1585.97998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.027081, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.021444, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.185557, "worst_return": -0.131065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003571, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012228, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.188146, "worst_return": -0.191869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007383, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.024152, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.421009, "worst_return": -0.211941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -71.530532, "energy": 81.416236, "activity_lines": [ 1605.45931, 1639.333161, 1730.583651, 1773.765798 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1593.209961, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.1, "trend": 1799.669474, "fair_value": 1445.420146, "relative_strength": -4.022807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.470829, "energy": 84.451061, "activity_lines": [ 1599.47264, 1621.956967, 1711.820344, 1760.308613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }