{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2df2fed-a587-4cc9-849c-19fdcc3cc61a", "symbol": "ELIA", "name": "Elia Group SA/NV", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.967, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.411, "architecture_energy": 14.812, "architecture_maturity": 24.522, "architecture_confidence": 69.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.0, "rotation_up": 27.49, "upward_expansion": 47.41, "deceleration": 78.5, "rotation_down": 31.87, "downward_expansion": 29.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.820002, 134.64182, 134.907287, 134.013603 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 133.600006, "trend_reference": 131.455863, "distance_from_trend": 0.016311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.179694, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.254135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077364, "excess_performance": -0.096883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084729, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035628, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077364, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044698, "annualized_volatility": 0.292904, "from_high_reference": -0.05181, "from_low_reference": 0.460852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.455863, "fair_value_reference": 99.179694, "structural_low": 121.445526, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021264, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030709, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.131707, "worst_return": -0.074724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.168497, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.076074, "worst_return": -0.26092, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080034, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112339, "worst_return": 0.04773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.049227, "energy": 40.42221, "activity_lines": [ 137.146669, 136.010325, 135.151287, 132.947152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 139.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 129.258013, "fair_value": 98.629057, "relative_strength": 0.666961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.844592, "energy": 57.214592, "activity_lines": [ 138.113336, 136.782976, 135.655098, 133.667734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 139.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 130.332359, "fair_value": 98.8434, "relative_strength": -0.918448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.371318, "energy": 49.391399, "activity_lines": [ 138.680002, 137.402101, 136.094095, 134.296249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.099998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 130.74866, "fair_value": 98.956426, "relative_strength": -12.029775, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.759688, "energy": 9.144765, "activity_lines": [ 133.453334, 134.945456, 134.974612, 133.829645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 133.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 131.455863, "fair_value": 99.179694, "relative_strength": -7.254135, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.410898, "energy": 14.811562, "activity_lines": [ 132.820002, 134.64182, 134.907287, 134.013603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }