{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2e2b408-81c8-4e45-9b4c-807750556b31", "symbol": "URGN", "name": "UroGen Pharma Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.958, "architecture_energy": 77.144, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.195, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 78.89, "upward_expansion": 89.43, "deceleration": 51.14, "rotation_down": 13.78, "downward_expansion": 13.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.979333, 39.45, 34.723476, 31.140473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.96, "trend_reference": 26.974, "distance_from_trend": 0.740936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.092981, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.747327, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 71.13663, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.199532, "excess_performance": 1.012078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.740936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.747327, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.824642, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.711366, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.393969, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.199532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.561877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6423618, "relative_activity": 1.676113, "balance": 2.561877, "dry_up": 1.102111, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096081, "annualized_volatility": 0.60601, "from_high_reference": -0.025524, "from_low_reference": 1.960908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.974, "fair_value_reference": 17.092981, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.033195, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.047774, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.290766, "worst_return": -0.282293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012995, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.862423, "worst_return": -0.281698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.153687, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.14342, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.761165, "worst_return": -0.020397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.169333, "fair_value": 15.993622, "relative_strength": 32.423136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.400126, "energy": 59.698327, "activity_lines": [ 30.162, 28.899818, 25.760333, 24.302366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 34.54, "volume": 3453671, "typical_volume": 3850874.0, "trend": 23.360333, "fair_value": 16.148686, "relative_strength": 40.75784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.360329, "energy": 72.764436, "activity_lines": [ 31.864667, 30.18, 26.796095, 25.035957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.02, "volume": 3226133, "typical_volume": 3893447.25, "trend": 23.861667, "fair_value": 16.317147, "relative_strength": 51.20236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.413058, "energy": 88.152793, "activity_lines": [ 34.350667, 31.874727, 28.100476, 25.981742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.56, "volume": 4374712, "typical_volume": 3928091.85, "trend": 24.420333, "fair_value": 16.505417, "relative_strength": 48.408269, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.220105, "energy": 90.857666, "activity_lines": [ 36.357333, 33.414727, 29.370952, 26.930022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.23, "volume": 4547749, "typical_volume": 3985202.1, "trend": 25.001333, "fair_value": 16.70375, "relative_strength": 58.948596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.547033, "energy": 90.645321, "activity_lines": [ 38.14, 34.975455, 30.71719, 27.95 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.97, "volume": 3104364, "typical_volume": 3740746.8, "trend": 25.599333, "fair_value": 16.821442, "relative_strength": 62.244368, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.001867, "energy": 89.791927, "activity_lines": [ 39.468667, 36.473818, 32.045667, 28.980237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.24, "volume": 2819404, "typical_volume": 3720277.2, "trend": 26.117, "fair_value": 16.934006, "relative_strength": 49.019536, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.982711, "energy": 75.036742, "activity_lines": [ 39.394, 37.254182, 33.016476, 29.795763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.96, "volume": 6423618, "typical_volume": 3832449.3, "trend": 26.974, "fair_value": 17.092981, "relative_strength": 71.13663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.957656, "energy": 77.144, "activity_lines": [ 41.979333, 39.45, 34.723476, 31.140473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }