{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2e2b7bc-4351-453e-b46d-89db34956ace", "symbol": "300281", "name": "Guangdong Jinming Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.416, "architecture_energy": 63.539, "architecture_maturity": 48.736, "architecture_confidence": 81.464, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.64, "rotation_up": 10.79, "upward_expansion": 12.49, "deceleration": 40.99, "rotation_down": 70.08, "downward_expansion": 85.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.821333, 6.08106, 6.547246, 6.757632 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.16, "trend_reference": 7.114824, "distance_from_trend": -0.134202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.217053, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.637694, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.229036, "excess_performance": -0.236436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009177, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010034, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35339700, "relative_activity": 0.972797, "balance": 0.906712, "dry_up": 1.110271, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119647, "annualized_volatility": 0.432833, "from_high_reference": -0.316055, "from_low_reference": 0.232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.114824, "fair_value_reference": 6.217053, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.049116, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.013909, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.187952, "worst_return": -0.178499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045561, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.032547, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.262605, "worst_return": -0.028846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.084504, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.072424, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102941, "worst_return": -0.017143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 77.769358, "activity_lines": [ 6.238667, 6.625926, 6.87798, 7.055469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.31, "volume": 48384256, "typical_volume": 35272107.95, "trend": 7.257157, "fair_value": 6.210354, "relative_strength": -29.381469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.470324, "energy": 78.568767, "activity_lines": [ 5.885333, 6.330029, 6.719148, 6.925308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.68, "volume": 34064120, "typical_volume": 35663540.95, "trend": 7.181824, "fair_value": 6.211975, "relative_strength": -22.657318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.883247, "energy": 75.822778, "activity_lines": [ 5.758667, 6.14211, 6.606316, 6.823556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.16, "volume": 35339700, "typical_volume": 36327928.45, "trend": 7.114824, "fair_value": 6.217053, "relative_strength": -19.637694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.41613, "energy": 63.538845, "activity_lines": [ 5.821333, 6.08106, 6.547246, 6.757632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }