{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2ec50a5-54a4-4c30-843e-2b52f6ff50bb", "symbol": "BONAV-B", "name": "Bonava AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.433, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 13.655, "architecture_energy": 34.382, "architecture_maturity": 8.427, "architecture_confidence": 44.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.45, "rotation_up": 50.68, "upward_expansion": 46.57, "deceleration": 19.23, "rotation_down": 15.67, "downward_expansion": 47.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.03, 9.784182, 9.473524, 9.594194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.36, "trend_reference": 10.055, "distance_from_trend": 0.030333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.771412, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038195, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.682385, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.175159, "excess_performance": -0.236654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038195, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129102, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098169, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175159, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.550345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1039341, "relative_activity": 0.764326, "balance": 1.550345, "dry_up": 0.964958, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070241, "annualized_volatility": 0.425978, "from_high_reference": -0.239354, "from_low_reference": 0.237754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.055, "fair_value_reference": 10.771412, "structural_low": 8.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.042024, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.043068, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.271746, "worst_return": -0.289067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.146898, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.152766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.497301, "worst_return": -0.279141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.121364, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.155902, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.509132, "worst_return": -0.62037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060329, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082031, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.156933, "energy": 12.383908, "activity_lines": [ 9.315333, 9.122182, 9.202667, 9.667355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.71, "volume": 2142856, "typical_volume": 1551452.3, "trend": 10.174333, "fair_value": 11.026219, "relative_strength": -16.466233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.446118, "energy": 16.767403, "activity_lines": [ 9.540667, 9.244545, 9.222095, 9.635054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.66, "volume": 1270947, "typical_volume": 1500063.85, "trend": 10.149667, "fair_value": 10.970258, "relative_strength": -15.365178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.458634, "energy": 20.321368, "activity_lines": [ 9.668667, 9.338545, 9.249095, 9.601871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.82, "volume": 1518585, "typical_volume": 1445391.85, "trend": 10.110333, "fair_value": 10.908207, "relative_strength": -14.692508, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.508918, "energy": 20.416352, "activity_lines": [ 9.780667, 9.461091, 9.298381, 9.580602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.04, "volume": 1419778, "typical_volume": 1380527.3, "trend": 10.079, "fair_value": 10.840001, "relative_strength": -13.422517, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.225221, "energy": 17.442094, "activity_lines": [ 9.882667, 9.604, 9.371, 9.576065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.36, "volume": 1039341, "typical_volume": 1359813.55, "trend": 10.055, "fair_value": 10.771412, "relative_strength": -11.682385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.655394, "energy": 34.381847, "activity_lines": [ 10.03, 9.784182, 9.473524, 9.594194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }