{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2ef694a-bbf7-4647-823e-7a7bb1e0c56d", "symbol": "HERO", "name": "Global X Video Games & Esports ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 16.545, "architecture_energy": 33.629, "architecture_maturity": 34.718, "architecture_confidence": 40.953, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.78, "rotation_up": 49.62, "upward_expansion": 31.63, "deceleration": 47.33, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 53.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 439.6, 431.311289, 431.051607, 438.300857 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 450.0, "trend_reference": 454.073537, "distance_from_trend": -0.008971, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 372.26397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.058568, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.155722, "excess_performance": -0.101056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20882, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155722, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.176101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25, "relative_activity": 1.319261, "balance": 0.176101, "dry_up": 0.765172, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017378, "annualized_volatility": 0.24253, "from_high_reference": -0.287811, "from_low_reference": 0.081731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 454.073537, "fair_value_reference": 372.26397, "structural_low": 416.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015586, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.042972, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.033062, "worst_return": -0.114707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018546, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024051, "worst_return": -0.162699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005226, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 17.564374, "worst_return": -0.273694, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.277705, "energy": 69.143944, "activity_lines": [ 418.350482, 419.654613, 429.440266, 441.536658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 420.0, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 25.35, "trend": 459.306871, "fair_value": 366.691712, "relative_strength": -20.477609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.545898, "energy": 65.008641, "activity_lines": [ 418.583494, 419.327844, 427.667856, 438.768411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 459.0, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 25.75, "trend": 456.940204, "fair_value": 369.504515, "relative_strength": -13.099011, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.156186, "energy": 17.282119, "activity_lines": [ 431.866667, 426.467368, 429.785922, 438.748613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 450.0, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 18.95, "trend": 454.073537, "fair_value": 372.26397, "relative_strength": -14.058568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.545469, "energy": 33.629059, "activity_lines": [ 439.6, 431.311289, 431.051607, 438.300857 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }