{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2f66f1c-38ab-439c-99af-a4644036dc11", "symbol": "MOM", "name": "Moab Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.952, "architecture_energy": 14.566, "architecture_maturity": 31.81, "architecture_confidence": 49.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.81, "rotation_up": 22.64, "upward_expansion": 17.78, "deceleration": 65.15, "rotation_down": 47.64, "downward_expansion": 35.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001767, 0.0019, 0.001848, 0.001845 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0015, "trend_reference": 0.001867, "distance_from_trend": -0.196429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.00366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.590193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.646047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034483, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.590193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067952, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113621, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5096307, "relative_activity": 1.085065, "balance": 1.007509, "dry_up": 1.60229, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.435897, "annualized_volatility": 1.806966, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001867, "fair_value_reference": 0.00366, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.176471, "median_excess_return": -0.012952, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.127225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.3, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.371376, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.6, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.715135, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.266667, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.75, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"energy": 45.52231, "activity_lines": [ 0.002233, 0.002027, 0.001883, 0.001894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.002, "volume": 18065757, "typical_volume": 5827482.8, "trend": 0.00195, "fair_value": 0.003814, "relative_strength": 7.603472, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.583179, "energy": 29.238312, "activity_lines": [ 0.0022, 0.002055, 0.001898, 0.001897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 4992597, "typical_volume": 5911879.35, "trend": 0.00195, "fair_value": 0.003769, "relative_strength": 7.366118, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.565343, "energy": 34.585253, "activity_lines": [ 0.002167, 0.002073, 0.001912, 0.0019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 1947728, "typical_volume": 5381551.9, "trend": 0.0019, "fair_value": 0.003715, "relative_strength": -21.266538, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.081131, "energy": 10.298078, "activity_lines": [ 0.001967, 0.001991, 0.001879, 0.001871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 5096307, "typical_volume": 4696775.75, "trend": 0.001867, "fair_value": 0.00366, "relative_strength": -23.646047, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.951612, "energy": 14.566312, "activity_lines": [ 0.001767, 0.0019, 0.001848, 0.001845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }