{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2f77932-85a3-4c5b-9f6d-9e8df8169d68", "symbol": "2733", "name": "Vigor Kobo Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.155, "architecture_energy": 23.922, "architecture_maturity": 74.616, "architecture_confidence": 86.173, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.34, "rotation_up": 25.13, "upward_expansion": 14.15, "deceleration": 45.07, "rotation_down": 32.92, "downward_expansion": 61.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.963333, 10.941818, 11.164048, 11.527849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.0, "trend_reference": 12.036667, "distance_from_trend": -0.086126, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.838141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383344, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.179551, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.191176, "excess_performance": -0.632548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383344, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037423, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.401796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054105, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.378503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10289, "relative_activity": 0.213576, "balance": 0.378503, "dry_up": 0.438003, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07972, "annualized_volatility": 0.300172, "from_high_reference": -0.314642, "from_low_reference": 0.145833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.036667, "fair_value_reference": 17.838141, "structural_low": 9.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.015038, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.002973, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.133588, "worst_return": -0.177273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.161288, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.210256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.116, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.371701, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.939394, "worst_return": -0.347458, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003436, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.32906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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-42.869578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.758304, "energy": 47.532508, "activity_lines": [ 10.816667, 10.949091, 11.44381, 11.856774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 32072, "typical_volume": 53951.75, "trend": 12.33, "fair_value": 18.202885, "relative_strength": -39.61442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.402715, "energy": 36.54996, "activity_lines": [ 10.926667, 10.979091, 11.38, 11.779355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.7, "volume": 38015, "typical_volume": 55341.5, "trend": 12.228333, "fair_value": 18.075961, "relative_strength": -40.4049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.063705, "energy": 36.633776, "activity_lines": [ 10.873333, 10.920909, 11.277143, 11.674194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.1, "volume": 4027, "typical_volume": 53337.15, "trend": 12.14, "fair_value": 17.95609, "relative_strength": -38.638779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.814656, "energy": 32.038008, "activity_lines": [ 10.94, 10.940909, 11.220952, 11.601398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.0, "volume": 10289, "typical_volume": 48174.85, "trend": 12.036667, "fair_value": 17.838141, "relative_strength": -40.179551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.154861, "energy": 23.921864, "activity_lines": [ 10.963333, 10.941818, 11.164048, 11.527849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }