{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2f9bc14-268f-4450-8393-9957e3b67427", "symbol": "002848", "name": "Gospell Digital Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.556, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.171, "architecture_energy": 47.929, "architecture_maturity": 7.361, "architecture_confidence": 56.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.79, "rotation_up": 15.25, "upward_expansion": 24.34, "deceleration": 51.15, "rotation_down": 64.42, "downward_expansion": 51.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.528, 12.969273, 13.933429, 13.888452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.93, "trend_reference": 13.497, "distance_from_trend": -0.042009, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.336603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.647848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090219, "excess_performance": 0.082819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042009, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150509, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384872, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.126478, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090219, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225246, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30758802, "relative_activity": 1.310157, "balance": 1.225246, "dry_up": 1.117851, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11476, "annualized_volatility": 0.535488, "from_high_reference": -0.27846, "from_low_reference": 0.766393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.497, "fair_value_reference": 9.336603, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.21, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.134289, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.369497, "worst_return": -0.046942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.183889, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.0931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.4075, "worst_return": -0.072695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.253745, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.211531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.379433, "worst_return": 0.062893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.17375, 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"2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.246454, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080508, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005141, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.234664, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058968, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 10.0, "volume": 20256825, "typical_volume": 32283704.4, "trend": 10.168333, "fair_value": 10.138782, "relative_strength": -2.15081, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.437648, 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"activity_lines": [ 13.842667, 14.475454, 14.677, 14.090753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.42, "volume": 25105700, "typical_volume": 23006083.2, "trend": 13.093, "fair_value": 9.297244, "relative_strength": 14.591628, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.674634, "energy": 23.315731, "activity_lines": [ 13.426667, 13.998182, 14.49619, 14.057484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.93, "volume": 24360054, "typical_volume": 23396034.4, "trend": 13.231667, "fair_value": 9.306859, "relative_strength": 9.093223, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.997147, "energy": 45.830341, "activity_lines": [ 12.864667, 13.489455, 14.267143, 13.982452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.21, "volume": 24751500, "typical_volume": 23373150.0, "trend": 13.365333, "fair_value": 9.317692, "relative_strength": 12.710193, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.071987, "energy": 53.353516, "activity_lines": [ 12.533333, 13.120545, 14.064524, 13.916538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.93, "volume": 30758802, "typical_volume": 23477192.65, "trend": 13.497, "fair_value": 9.336603, "relative_strength": 12.647848, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.171178, "energy": 47.928544, "activity_lines": [ 12.528, 12.969273, 13.933429, 13.888452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }