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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.162, "architecture_energy": 59.83, "architecture_maturity": 69.923, "architecture_confidence": 78.273, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 54.38, "upward_expansion": 82.88, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 28.18, "downward_expansion": 9.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.296527, 87.876866, 86.50178, 84.343651 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 90.4045, "trend_reference": 81.896301, "distance_from_trend": 0.10389, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.113358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367417, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.951799, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139287, "excess_performance": 0.013662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10389, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.367417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029518, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139287, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.006321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34655, "relative_activity": 0.71084, "balance": 2.006321, "dry_up": 0.873228, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024993, "annualized_volatility": 0.149607, "from_high_reference": -0.00698, "from_low_reference": 0.301853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.896301, "fair_value_reference": 66.113358, "structural_low": 71.208185, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.129521, "energy": 71.767751, "activity_lines": [ 87.729627, 87.042102, 84.447588, 82.54832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 87.188, "volume": 32645, "typical_volume": 56559.9, "trend": 80.798817, "fair_value": 65.393888, "relative_strength": 3.629152, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.937067, "energy": 60.703337, "activity_lines": [ 87.60892, 87.187336, 84.966751, 82.98443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.6824, "volume": 36978, "typical_volume": 52298.25, "trend": 81.121257, "fair_value": 65.618776, "relative_strength": 3.522939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.125646, "energy": 54.378952, "activity_lines": [ 87.298707, 87.193677, 85.394262, 83.364016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.39, "volume": 66009, "typical_volume": 50625.4, "trend": 81.488895, "fair_value": 65.855205, "relative_strength": 3.125197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.505885, "energy": 50.174889, "activity_lines": [ 87.310533, 87.279782, 85.835794, 83.768451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.4045, "volume": 34655, "typical_volume": 48752.15, "trend": 81.896301, "fair_value": 66.113358, "relative_strength": 2.951799, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.16246, "energy": 59.830046, "activity_lines": [ 88.296527, 87.876866, 86.50178, 84.343651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }