{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2ffc8bd-0731-4911-9c99-c74edaf034f5", "symbol": "BIL", "name": "State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.057, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.235, "architecture_energy": 43.568, "architecture_maturity": 15.061, "architecture_confidence": 81.934, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.78, "rotation_up": 22.25, "upward_expansion": 13.47, "deceleration": 34.49, "rotation_down": 53.94, "downward_expansion": 75.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 1578.705021, 1582.495102, 1583.162446, 1587.139007 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1568.420044, "trend_reference": 1589.49718, "distance_from_trend": -0.01326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1668.34568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.822888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001567, "excess_performance": 0.053099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001569, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001567, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.054492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1277084, "relative_activity": 2.777979, "balance": 2.054492, "dry_up": 1.439669, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012044, "annualized_volatility": 0.096762, "from_high_reference": -0.086739, "from_low_reference": 0.007354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1589.49718, "fair_value_reference": 1668.34568, "structural_low": 1556.970581, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.001019, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.009851, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.037836, "worst_return": -0.026937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019336, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.001545, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.04573, "worst_return": -0.043095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109883, "regime_survival": 0.25, 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"tenure": "New", "return": -0.017636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020416, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.10409, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024326, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.107061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019426, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1551.470459, "volume": 64389, "typical_volume": 431704.9, "trend": 1611.3566, "fair_value": 1788.536504, 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17.201211, "activity_lines": [ 1584.228043, 1585.629445, 1585.31704, 1588.652268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1568.420044, "volume": 1277084, "typical_volume": 459716.9, "trend": 1589.49718, "fair_value": 1668.34568, "relative_strength": -5.822888, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.23465, "energy": 43.568196, "activity_lines": [ 1578.705021, 1582.495102, 1583.162446, 1587.139007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }