{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3025c5d-20bd-483d-b9c2-b3401e486486", "symbol": "000519", "name": "North Industries Group Red Arrow Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.041, "architecture_energy": 81.128, "architecture_maturity": 22.35, "architecture_confidence": 78.225, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.11, "rotation_up": 10.7, "upward_expansion": 21.38, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 76.94, "downward_expansion": 92.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.576667, 16.199324, 17.225498, 17.532664 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.76, "trend_reference": 17.986214, "distance_from_trend": -0.179372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.053338, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.538438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217391, "excess_performance": -0.224791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080565, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.540216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222890337, "relative_activity": 1.132655, "balance": 1.540216, "dry_up": 1.47046, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119567, "annualized_volatility": 0.501411, "from_high_reference": -0.393092, "from_low_reference": 0.131034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.986214, "fair_value_reference": 16.053338, "structural_low": 13.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.029893, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.019831, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.235808, "worst_return": -0.107273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013302, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00904, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.464384, "worst_return": -0.254546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005431, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008669, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.537118, "worst_return": -0.218182, "sufficient": true }, { 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-64.148165, "energy": 41.113451, "activity_lines": [ 17.291096, 18.242159, 18.202781, 18.262727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.17, "volume": 313907462, "typical_volume": 193283652.45, "trend": 18.215548, "fair_value": 16.088232, "relative_strength": -24.652407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.962436, "energy": 62.763766, "activity_lines": [ 15.89, 17.449829, 17.826655, 17.995036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.39, "volume": 279198018, "typical_volume": 193681111.85, "trend": 18.101214, "fair_value": 16.06829, "relative_strength": -21.397601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.287482, "energy": 77.834795, "activity_lines": [ 14.972, 16.759128, 17.499196, 17.748227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.76, "volume": 222890337, "typical_volume": 196785787.0, "trend": 17.986214, "fair_value": 16.053338, "relative_strength": -22.538438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.041398, "energy": 81.127753, "activity_lines": [ 14.576667, 16.199324, 17.225498, 17.532664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }