{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a302bca8-f0b0-4d41-b458-977f5de910d7", "symbol": "VIPULLTD", "name": "Vipul Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.846, "architecture_energy": 22.426, "architecture_maturity": 56.285, "architecture_confidence": 88.465, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.76, "rotation_up": 32.55, "upward_expansion": 64.91, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 25.88, "downward_expansion": 14.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.818, 13.201636, 12.00719, 11.65957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.89, "trend_reference": 11.434, "distance_from_trend": 0.039881, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.073077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376608, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.924541, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145472, "excess_performance": 0.189181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039881, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091239, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376608, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.119245, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.278252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 870101, "relative_activity": 0.422618, "balance": 1.278252, "dry_up": 1.403254, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160251, "annualized_volatility": 0.716146, "from_high_reference": -0.360753, "from_low_reference": 0.611111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.434, "fair_value_reference": 19.073077, "structural_low": 8.55, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.056285, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.107052, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.226168, "worst_return": -0.290642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.12004, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.190928, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.361204, "worst_return": -0.202312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.248555, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.364532, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.11948, "worst_return": -0.344608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.497033, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.530864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.046243, "worst_return": -0.631104, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00775, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154514, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.253956, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.621334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096007, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.213675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04335, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100833, "active": false 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10.566516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.34, "volume": 10397139, "typical_volume": 1728367.7, "trend": 10.974333, "fair_value": 19.080897, "relative_strength": 51.827217, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.293387, "energy": 62.042351, "activity_lines": [ 12.694667, 11.236909, 10.777571, 10.86314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.98, "volume": 6307975, "typical_volume": 1850870.3, "trend": 11.199, "fair_value": 19.101282, "relative_strength": 66.282109, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.755247, "energy": 96.682193, "activity_lines": [ 14.458667, 12.425455, 11.36319, 11.250602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.64, "volume": 8356122, "typical_volume": 2046496.8, "trend": 11.376, "fair_value": 19.116923, "relative_strength": 50.674922, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.859686, "energy": 90.397191, "activity_lines": [ 15.282667, 13.238364, 11.790476, 11.537118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.12, "volume": 1083779, "typical_volume": 1994288.45, "trend": 11.388333, "fair_value": 19.111282, "relative_strength": 18.702433, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.832919, "energy": 81.238856, "activity_lines": [ 14.517333, 13.302, 11.870905, 11.585118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.05, "volume": 1246282, "typical_volume": 2049898.35, "trend": 11.397667, "fair_value": 19.098782, "relative_strength": 14.650302, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.423491, "energy": 48.869307, "activity_lines": [ 13.663333, 13.295091, 11.94781, 11.627806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.89, "volume": 870101, "typical_volume": 2058836.7, "trend": 11.434, "fair_value": 19.073077, "relative_strength": 11.924541, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.84643, "energy": 22.426284, "activity_lines": [ 12.818, 13.201636, 12.00719, 11.65957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }