{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a305c6b4-a5fd-4d27-961d-245bd62acbcc", "symbol": "VMSTXN", "name": "Vanguard Funds Plc - Vanguard Ultra-Short U.S. Treasury Ucits ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.572, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.164, "architecture_energy": 79.764, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.458, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.5, "rotation_up": 73.67, "upward_expansion": 93.42, "deceleration": 45.86, "rotation_down": 21.34, "downward_expansion": 15.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3225.64668, 3219.421831, 3205.620381, 3191.707863 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 3231.98999, "trend_reference": 3171.874316, "distance_from_trend": 0.018953, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2862.110309, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.154672, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034515, "excess_performance": 0.089182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018953, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013142, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011547, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034515, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.138925, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124909, "relative_activity": 0.933845, "balance": 4.138925, "dry_up": 0.776196, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003288, "annualized_volatility": 0.010749, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.077804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3171.874316, "fair_value_reference": 2862.110309, "structural_low": 3100.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.007562, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006656, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.011872, "worst_return": 0.003269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026118, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021365, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.033249, "worst_return": 0.015006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040391, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.061052, "worst_return": 0.032842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3175.42205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3218.5, "volume": 102623, "typical_volume": 137166.65, "trend": 3159.725651, "fair_value": 2846.872488, "relative_strength": 0.707386, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.226501, "energy": 71.348643, "activity_lines": [ 3214.038672, 3207.616366, 3193.322897, 3179.470287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3222.449951, "volume": 154742, "typical_volume": 138818.05, "trend": 3163.840649, "fair_value": 2851.953706, "relative_strength": 1.366273, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.75323, "energy": 80.7333, "activity_lines": [ 3217.349984, 3211.457812, 3197.382846, 3183.517016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3226.600098, "volume": 33015, "typical_volume": 133923.55, "trend": 3167.791317, "fair_value": 2857.039861, "relative_strength": 0.843669, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.519886, "energy": 80.081687, "activity_lines": [ 3221.42002, 3215.337105, 3201.445429, 3187.566013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3231.98999, "volume": 124909, "typical_volume": 133757.7, "trend": 3171.874316, "fair_value": 2862.110309, "relative_strength": 1.154672, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.16398, "energy": 79.764372, "activity_lines": [ 3225.64668, 3219.421831, 3205.620381, 3191.707863 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }