{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3072495-c852-4363-a0e4-9ab33382c83c", "symbol": "IHRT", "name": "iHeartMedia Inc Class A", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.218, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.065, "architecture_energy": 32.949, "architecture_maturity": 31.754, "architecture_confidence": 46.682, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.73, "rotation_up": 20.11, "upward_expansion": 24.01, "deceleration": 48.87, "rotation_down": 51.67, "downward_expansion": 46.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.737333, 3.865091, 4.123286, 4.028903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 3.879167, "distance_from_trend": -0.004941, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.554352, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.511147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.607201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191358, "excess_performance": 0.003904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.511147, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.745066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.643987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191358, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.474438, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1970613, "relative_activity": 0.393271, "balance": 0.474438, "dry_up": 0.552088, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180462, "annualized_volatility": 0.834108, "from_high_reference": -0.411576, "from_low_reference": 1.435331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.879167, "fair_value_reference": 2.554352, "structural_low": 2.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.020876, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.014096, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.267016, "worst_return": -0.310249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.092985, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.078025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.489011, "worst_return": -0.163711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106906, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.139324, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.027473, "worst_return": -0.46794, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.556951, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.457725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.308901, "worst_return": -0.568895, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.54, "volume": 3241070, "typical_volume": 5313964.0, "trend": 3.897167, "fair_value": 2.557108, "relative_strength": -8.107193, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.339575, "energy": 8.406631, "activity_lines": [ 3.897333, 3.964, 4.193429, 4.049914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.59, "volume": 3153590, "typical_volume": 5193529.9, "trend": 3.8785, "fair_value": 2.551275, "relative_strength": -7.928118, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.076893, "energy": 32.307237, "activity_lines": [ 3.748, 3.882545, 4.14769, 4.030097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 1970613, "typical_volume": 5010827.45, "trend": 3.879167, "fair_value": 2.554352, "relative_strength": -6.607201, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.065428, "energy": 32.948862, "activity_lines": [ 3.737333, 3.865091, 4.123286, 4.028903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }