{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a30ea8f6-c8cd-4dd2-9a00-51fd73c905fa", "symbol": "600010", "name": "Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.627, "architecture_energy": 51.066, "architecture_maturity": 29.331, "architecture_confidence": 93.877, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.61, "rotation_up": 24.92, "upward_expansion": 8.32, "deceleration": 51.89, "rotation_down": 53.05, "downward_expansion": 81.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.214, 2.229636, 2.352333, 2.448559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.28, "trend_reference": 2.540667, "distance_from_trend": -0.102598, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.969972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.223205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091633, "excess_performance": -0.04843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2596615786, "relative_activity": 0.868477, "balance": 0.580483, "dry_up": 0.753855, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067476, "annualized_volatility": 0.468274, "from_high_reference": -0.331378, "from_low_reference": 0.117647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.540667, "fair_value_reference": 1.969972, "structural_low": 2.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.014925, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.39548, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005465, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.030862, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.464082, "worst_return": -0.262948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030357, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047682, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.469869, "worst_return": -0.125683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 2.28, "volume": 2596615786, "typical_volume": 2989849960.7, "trend": 2.540667, "fair_value": 1.969972, "relative_strength": -9.223205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.627472, "energy": 51.066419, "activity_lines": [ 2.214, 2.229636, 2.352333, 2.448559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }