{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a31884fa-74ad-423e-ba77-939c4e454228", "symbol": "RNO", "name": "Renault SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.48, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.855, "architecture_energy": 10.315, "architecture_maturity": 41.341, "architecture_confidence": 79.584, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.79, "rotation_up": 31.46, "upward_expansion": 16.98, "deceleration": 39.54, "rotation_down": 29.74, "downward_expansion": 64.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.3, 26.940728, 27.295213, 27.490067 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.67, "trend_reference": 27.924437, "distance_from_trend": 0.026699, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.830617, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.49956, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003611, "excess_performance": -0.177858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068687, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043582, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003611, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.862195, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9079, "relative_activity": 1.007379, "balance": 1.862195, "dry_up": 1.70466, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057659, "annualized_volatility": 0.356415, "from_high_reference": -0.185251, "from_low_reference": 0.145977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.924437, "fair_value_reference": 34.830617, "structural_low": 25.017958, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.023887, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00353, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.259435, "worst_return": -0.203314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017073, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.006227, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.361314, "worst_return": -0.11625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064883, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.003164, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.289144, "worst_return": -0.101163, "sufficient": true }, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.216215, "energy": 56.747033, "activity_lines": [ 26.012001, 26.522909, 27.149883, 27.488522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.6, "volume": 33662, "typical_volume": 8904.05, "trend": 28.01994, "fair_value": 34.85474, "relative_strength": -23.681756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.467074, "energy": 31.210194, "activity_lines": [ 26.532667, 26.633273, 27.173936, 27.448128 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.67, "volume": 9079, "typical_volume": 9012.5, "trend": 27.924437, "fair_value": 34.830617, "relative_strength": -22.49956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.854539, "energy": 10.315274, "activity_lines": [ 27.3, 26.940728, 27.295213, 27.490067 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }