{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3194dba-0238-4393-9c06-83c61ac97432", "symbol": "RFIX", "name": "Simplify Downside Interest Rate Hedge Strategy ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.776, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.586, "architecture_energy": 56.464, "architecture_maturity": 7.812, "architecture_confidence": 90.913, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.98, "rotation_up": 13.02, "upward_expansion": 11.77, "deceleration": 38.55, "rotation_down": 67.79, "downward_expansion": 89.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.300079, 37.787893, 38.195768, 38.553606 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 36.81, "trend_reference": 38.651755, "distance_from_trend": -0.04765, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.725058, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.646472, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.016346, "excess_performance": -0.14197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001557, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs 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"Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 37.804602, 38.26911, 38.521512, 38.749991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.3798, "volume": 901050, "typical_volume": 2231994.25, "trend": 38.630996, "fair_value": 42.793838, "relative_strength": -12.965532, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.428166, "energy": 45.006387, "activity_lines": [ 37.596732, 38.067107, 38.376347, 38.67109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.81, "volume": 1632470, "typical_volume": 2056365.85, "trend": 38.651755, "fair_value": 42.725058, "relative_strength": -16.646472, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.586436, "energy": 56.464255, "activity_lines": [ 37.300079, 37.787893, 38.195768, 38.553606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }