{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a31ce568-bc2c-447e-8120-8a17db78c4fe", "symbol": "002532", "name": "Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.978, "architecture_energy": 28.692, "architecture_maturity": 77.378, "architecture_confidence": 80.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.77, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 29.11, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.88, 12.422545, 13.439174, 14.382662 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.55, "trend_reference": 15.56982, "distance_from_trend": -0.129727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.276141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.302404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266128, "excess_performance": -0.273528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129727, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.460737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.3334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 485239978, "relative_activity": 1.259471, "balance": 1.3334, "dry_up": 1.654267, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107635, "annualized_volatility": 0.478826, "from_high_reference": -0.367756, "from_low_reference": 0.551041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.56982, "fair_value_reference": 9.276141, "structural_low": 10.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.042471, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016834, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.199271, "worst_return": -0.174129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.070537, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.12759, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.320836, "worst_return": -0.175095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06489, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.119073, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.879045, "worst_return": -0.109297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-74.254788, "energy": 89.55899, "activity_lines": [ 11.473333, 12.561804, 14.285792, 15.13661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.99, "volume": 844614953, "typical_volume": 363561995.95, "trend": 15.761112, "fair_value": 9.135847, "relative_strength": -12.661557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.168197, "energy": 84.081079, "activity_lines": [ 11.53, 12.28, 13.95741, 14.890492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.5, "volume": 718549332, "typical_volume": 375296970.35, "trend": 15.713819, "fair_value": 9.179645, "relative_strength": -9.672375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.994338, "energy": 59.308108, "activity_lines": [ 11.852667, 12.171273, 13.703382, 14.680097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.2, "volume": 500971985, "typical_volume": 380892589.6, "trend": 15.646434, "fair_value": 9.226713, "relative_strength": -3.525746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.688812, "energy": 43.842538, "activity_lines": [ 12.378667, 12.241273, 13.54228, 14.517916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.55, "volume": 485239978, "typical_volume": 385272894.6, "trend": 15.56982, "fair_value": 9.276141, "relative_strength": -6.302404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.977709, "energy": 28.691687, "activity_lines": [ 12.88, 12.422545, 13.439174, 14.382662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }