{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a31ee514-04f3-404d-9045-989b385c5082", "symbol": "APLD", "name": "Applied Digital Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.38, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.639, "architecture_energy": 46.597, "architecture_maturity": 14.366, "architecture_confidence": 74.595, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.88, "rotation_up": 14.88, "upward_expansion": 23.77, "deceleration": 51.01, "rotation_down": 67.15, "downward_expansion": 53.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.997333, 31.098, 34.752048, 34.047849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.22, "trend_reference": 33.57, "distance_from_trend": -0.12958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.386859, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.03102, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.311592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.163948, "excess_performance": -0.351402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065917, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.03102, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.401529, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.627099, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.86129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82539285, "relative_activity": 0.781819, "balance": 1.86129, "dry_up": 0.987376, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.282813, "annualized_volatility": 0.791673, "from_high_reference": -0.423953, "from_low_reference": 1.220365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.57, "fair_value_reference": 14.386859, "structural_low": 20.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.215734, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.201282, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.472222, "worst_return": -0.113422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.359168, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.21589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.648148, "worst_return": -0.845361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.505601, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.609047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.198488, "worst_return": -0.812715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.485211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.390406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.270856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.32702, "active": false }, 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"up", "direction": 12.764144, "energy": 14.125402, "activity_lines": [ 36.09, 39.197273, 37.443857, 35.709097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.79, "volume": 94779699, "typical_volume": 101234140.7, "trend": 33.771333, "fair_value": 14.005096, "relative_strength": -19.606167, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.106096, "energy": 30.284699, "activity_lines": [ 31.842667, 36.445636, 36.61781, 35.189742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.19, "volume": 95351543, "typical_volume": 101829481.0, "trend": 33.876, "fair_value": 14.119103, "relative_strength": -14.603417, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.440243, "energy": 33.984431, "activity_lines": [ 29.189333, 34.229636, 35.932143, 34.76514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.39, "volume": 144291944, "typical_volume": 104850219.55, "trend": 33.852, "fair_value": 14.244744, "relative_strength": -15.046613, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.001055, "energy": 43.725541, "activity_lines": [ 27.896, 32.329455, 35.255762, 34.346688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.22, "volume": 82539285, "typical_volume": 105573352.5, "trend": 33.57, "fair_value": 14.386859, "relative_strength": -14.311592, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.639046, "energy": 46.596771, "activity_lines": [ 27.997333, 31.098, 34.752048, 34.047849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }