{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a32039ea-ad38-4533-bf3b-bc7f756aa3c0", "symbol": "VGE", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Shares ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.481, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.48, "architecture_energy": 21.886, "architecture_maturity": 41.738, "architecture_confidence": 78.785, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.81, "rotation_up": 36.22, "upward_expansion": 61.53, "deceleration": 82.07, "rotation_down": 25.83, "downward_expansion": 18.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 92.861332, 93.051958, 92.35404, 91.322299 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 93.989998, "trend_reference": 90.479089, "distance_from_trend": 0.038804, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.758878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.626869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054899, "excess_performance": -0.008807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038804, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.277789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117088, "relative_activity": 0.76812, "balance": 1.277789, "dry_up": 1.544528, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031415, "annualized_volatility": 0.130397, "from_high_reference": -0.024593, "from_low_reference": 0.146098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.479089, "fair_value_reference": 77.758878, "structural_low": 82.008717, 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90.827094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.43, "volume": 196173, "typical_volume": 145018.4, "trend": 90.266662, "fair_value": 77.399206, "relative_strength": 2.340404, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.645949, "energy": 26.660407, "activity_lines": [ 92.511317, 92.748096, 91.779037, 90.909141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 93.059998, "volume": 263002, "typical_volume": 151563.85, "trend": 90.379375, "fair_value": 77.574773, "relative_strength": 1.650656, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.283, "energy": 20.912029, "activity_lines": [ 92.536665, 92.831392, 92.040018, 91.089356 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.989998, "volume": 117088, "typical_volume": 152434.55, "trend": 90.479089, "fair_value": 77.758878, "relative_strength": -0.626869, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.479733, "energy": 21.886073, "activity_lines": [ 92.861332, 93.051958, 92.35404, 91.322299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }