{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a326a51c-eb46-4cb9-aa22-86799b44fc93", "symbol": "OSSD", "name": "OssDsign AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.842, "architecture_energy": 38.107, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.688, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.53, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 41.34, "downward_expansion": 66.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.127333, 4.119, 4.149167, 4.494849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.135, "trend_reference": 5.303833, "distance_from_trend": -0.220375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.214712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.551261, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -58.044312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.361883, "excess_performance": -0.423377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.551261, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020615, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.580443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099094, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.361883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939085, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 672097, "relative_activity": 0.396848, "balance": 0.939085, "dry_up": 0.341295, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08548, "annualized_volatility": 0.937898, "from_high_reference": -0.752691, "from_low_reference": 0.23988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.303833, "fair_value_reference": 9.214712, "structural_low": 3.335, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.029294, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.040866, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.392606, "worst_return": -0.382857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.15331, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.10902, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.674534, "worst_return": -0.445455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.264865, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.199308, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.719388, "worst_return": -0.63, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.147959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.025, "volume": 527459, "typical_volume": 2036491.05, "trend": 5.999167, "fair_value": 9.252276, "relative_strength": -60.508204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.551602, "energy": 62.7093, "activity_lines": [ 4.077, 4.116727, 4.249286, 4.808731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.985, "volume": 410431, "typical_volume": 1911881.8, "trend": 5.75, "fair_value": 9.23859, "relative_strength": -60.460399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.060517, "energy": 64.558489, "activity_lines": [ 4.042333, 4.090455, 4.194452, 4.678785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.28, "volume": 702063, "typical_volume": 1724413.65, "trend": 5.516, "fair_value": 9.227308, "relative_strength": -56.918685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.135996, "energy": 47.761308, "activity_lines": [ 4.116333, 4.119364, 4.174929, 4.583946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.135, "volume": 672097, "typical_volume": 1693586.25, "trend": 5.303833, "fair_value": 9.214712, "relative_strength": -58.044312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.842362, "energy": 38.106691, "activity_lines": [ 4.127333, 4.119, 4.149167, 4.494849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }