{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a32801ee-695c-462d-ae9a-aa6830545ce2", "symbol": "6654", "name": "Tian Zheng International Precision Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.194, "architecture_energy": 23.437, "architecture_maturity": 78.853, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.76, "rotation_up": 22.81, "upward_expansion": 54.38, "deceleration": 93.97, "rotation_down": 27.28, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 172.066667, 178.118182, 164.079524, 146.94258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 176.0, "trend_reference": 126.983333, "distance_from_trend": 0.386009, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.9, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.517883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.859565, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.949059, "excess_performance": 0.507687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.386009, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.338969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.517883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.916561, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.248596, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.468679, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.949059, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.115392, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 198101, "relative_activity": 0.400615, "balance": 2.115392, "dry_up": 0.500619, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179589, "annualized_volatility": 0.876343, "from_high_reference": -0.272727, "from_low_reference": 1.707692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.983333, "fair_value_reference": 69.9, "structural_low": 84.800003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.03683, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0446, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.066177, "worst_return": -0.10197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.085675, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.164833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121323, "worst_return": -0.265625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.098039, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.20714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124183, "worst_return": -0.170454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.480843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010116, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012881, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 184.266667, 183.856364, 154.877619, 137.88344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.0, "volume": 470000, "typical_volume": 486086.9, "trend": 120.85, "fair_value": 68.212179, "relative_strength": 13.534053, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.131063, "energy": 33.525063, "activity_lines": [ 171.8, 179.281818, 156.450952, 139.835053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 179.0, "volume": 166008, "typical_volume": 490437.3, "trend": 123.983333, "fair_value": 69.062179, "relative_strength": 32.185343, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.351938, "energy": 27.333782, "activity_lines": [ 171.733333, 179.2, 160.617619, 143.586666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 176.0, "volume": 198101, "typical_volume": 494492.35, "trend": 126.983333, "fair_value": 69.9, "relative_strength": 24.859565, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.19371, "energy": 23.436655, "activity_lines": [ 172.066667, 178.118182, 164.079524, 146.94258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }