{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3284aea-b9c2-4363-ba31-b23d542c50a0", "symbol": "CHSRI", "name": "UBS MSCI Switzerland IMI Socially Responsible ETF CHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.024, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.959, "architecture_energy": 67.897, "architecture_maturity": 27.444, "architecture_confidence": 79.734, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 67.28, "upward_expansion": 87.15, "deceleration": 53.72, "rotation_down": 21.76, "downward_expansion": 11.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.516667, 20.384237, 19.94949, 19.648351 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.815001, "trend_reference": 19.36582, "distance_from_trend": 0.074832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.548606, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186134, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.881055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077699, "excess_performance": -0.005184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028409, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084661, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008811, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005186, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.521242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94234, "relative_activity": 1.802269, "balance": 2.521242, "dry_up": 1.596221, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019941, "annualized_volatility": 0.158855, "from_high_reference": -0.008337, "from_low_reference": 0.206288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.36582, "fair_value_reference": 17.548606, "structural_low": 17.255413, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.000601, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": 0.003065, "regime_survival": 0.655172, "best_return": 0.054376, "worst_return": -0.102789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008718, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.000118, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.078929, "worst_return": -0.050594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007093, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.008831, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.132177, "worst_return": -0.162076, "sufficient": true }, { 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20.080946, 19.609799, 19.410513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.225, "volume": 53105, "typical_volume": 50559.0, "trend": 19.260677, "fair_value": 17.478339, "relative_strength": -2.488341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.118029, "energy": 84.297847, "activity_lines": [ 20.362334, 20.156655, 19.705765, 19.475571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.434999, "volume": 40132, "typical_volume": 49691.55, "trend": 19.311223, "fair_value": 17.5121, "relative_strength": -1.470149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.724831, "energy": 64.369262, "activity_lines": [ 20.383, 20.246055, 19.814278, 19.551333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.815001, "volume": 94234, "typical_volume": 52286.3, "trend": 19.36582, "fair_value": 17.548606, "relative_strength": -0.881055, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.959034, "energy": 67.897033, "activity_lines": [ 20.516667, 20.384237, 19.94949, 19.648351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }