{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a3286de9-eadb-423a-a162-470f8a2949f1", "symbol": "RHTX", "name": "STARBOARD INVESTMENT TRUST RH TACTICAL OUTLOOK ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.756, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.563, "architecture_energy": 22.693, "architecture_maturity": 31.544, "architecture_confidence": 76.649, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.6, "rotation_up": 34.12, "upward_expansion": 57.7, "deceleration": 85.67, "rotation_down": 30.14, "downward_expansion": 19.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.89248, 19.847615, 19.888223, 19.751548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.4458, "trend_reference": 19.644623, "distance_from_trend": 0.040784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.455941, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.97975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043132, "excess_performance": -0.082493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023337, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242457, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043132, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.701618, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1032, "relative_activity": 0.37608, "balance": 0.701618, "dry_up": 1.875752, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020117, "annualized_volatility": 0.151966, "from_high_reference": -0.0075, "from_low_reference": 0.308113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.644623, "fair_value_reference": 16.455941, "structural_low": 17.95, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.015325, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003225, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.043059, "worst_return": -0.051805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042263, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084812, "worst_return": -0.126503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081387, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11108, "worst_return": 0.038752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.8974, 20.003267, 19.760468, 19.642444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.8353, "volume": 177, "typical_volume": 1660.9, "trend": 19.496517, "fair_value": 16.259881, "relative_strength": -3.616663, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.71339, "energy": 18.88407, "activity_lines": [ 19.845773, 19.96782, 19.785164, 19.667231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.8892, "volume": 4594, "typical_volume": 1870.6, "trend": 19.540047, "fair_value": 16.299452, "relative_strength": -4.567854, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.160504, "energy": 17.993462, "activity_lines": [ 19.851507, 19.942082, 19.813003, 19.692565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.613, "volume": 3832, "typical_volume": 2001.1, "trend": 19.570817, "fair_value": 16.336814, "relative_strength": -4.343876, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.511661, "energy": 17.240242, "activity_lines": [ 19.762067, 19.866204, 19.813987, 19.697272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.601, "volume": 73, "typical_volume": 1947.35, "trend": 19.584993, "fair_value": 16.373326, "relative_strength": -3.784471, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.079294, "energy": 10.131021, "activity_lines": [ 19.695047, 19.801796, 19.8154, 19.699219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.56, "volume": 15652, "typical_volume": 2718.3, "trend": 19.609703, "fair_value": 16.411515, "relative_strength": -4.956571, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.910404, "energy": 11.47411, "activity_lines": [ 19.64378, 19.738367, 19.811236, 19.697607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.4458, "volume": 1032, "typical_volume": 2744.1, "trend": 19.644623, "fair_value": 16.455941, "relative_strength": -3.97975, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.56302, "energy": 22.693089, "activity_lines": [ 19.89248, 19.847615, 19.888223, 19.751548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }