{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a329a22b-8f0b-4137-8a39-04676d03dd99", "symbol": "DIPL", "name": "Diplomat Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.531, "architecture_energy": 68.33, "architecture_maturity": 91.889, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.71, "rotation_down": 61.98, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.188667, 49.398364, 1446.22198, 2406.701106 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 47.88, "trend_reference": 3484.90404, "distance_from_trend": -0.986261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3883.444319, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.983438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990819, "excess_performance": -1.01972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328084, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.439356, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.881466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990819, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402038, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44382, "relative_activity": 0.800346, "balance": 0.402038, "dry_up": 0.782593, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.826433, "annualized_volatility": 6.365087, "from_high_reference": -0.992098, "from_low_reference": 0.038837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3484.90404, "fair_value_reference": 3883.444319, "structural_low": 46.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.000541, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.029058, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.150673, "worst_return": -0.169805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.054516, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.023944, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.177465, "worst_return": -0.136123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009166, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.055441, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.718235, "worst_return": -0.170823, "sufficient": true }, { 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3655.718001, "fair_value": 3905.401414, "relative_strength": -99.014574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.670213, "energy": 68.600465, "activity_lines": [ 48.636, 141.39124, 1721.002242, 2639.464848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.88, "volume": 44382, "typical_volume": 55453.5, "trend": 3484.90404, "fair_value": 3883.444319, "relative_strength": -98.983438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.530502, "energy": 68.330264, "activity_lines": [ 48.188667, 49.398364, 1446.22198, 2406.701106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }