{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a335e4f5-9ebf-4b91-84fd-553357d1c8d9", "symbol": "SKYU", "name": "First Trust Cloud Computing UCITS ETF Class A USD Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.457, "architecture_energy": 73.169, "architecture_maturity": 35.717, "architecture_confidence": 88.732, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.41, "rotation_up": 68.25, "upward_expansion": 87.75, "deceleration": 47.93, "rotation_down": 16.63, "downward_expansion": 14.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.134335, 58.541637, 56.803643, 54.646882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 65.300003, "trend_reference": 52.388, "distance_from_trend": 0.246469, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.014103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.142596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.39724, "excess_performance": 0.346004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.246469, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.121426, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147278, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.39724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.000997, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20069, "relative_activity": 0.75474, "balance": 2.000997, "dry_up": 0.984013, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055554, "annualized_volatility": 0.348745, "from_high_reference": -0.006693, "from_low_reference": 0.501667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.388, "fair_value_reference": 46.014103, "structural_low": 43.485001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.026862, "positive_rate": 0.655172, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": 0.013097, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.135785, "worst_return": -0.169801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.016533, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009435, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.226415, "worst_return": -0.173709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073166, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137138, "worst_return": -0.080375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 59.014999, "volume": 28759, "typical_volume": 28289.8, "trend": 51.808, "fair_value": 45.344904, "relative_strength": 5.011978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.017462, "energy": 39.588987, "activity_lines": [ 56.740333, 56.841091, 54.307428, 52.762817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.860001, "volume": 22804, "typical_volume": 27059.65, "trend": 51.856667, "fair_value": 45.495849, "relative_strength": 0.327825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.847635, "energy": 35.990685, "activity_lines": [ 56.905334, 56.927546, 54.783476, 53.088753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.540001, "volume": 35375, "typical_volume": 25779.0, "trend": 51.854, "fair_value": 45.638061, "relative_strength": -3.038001, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.574866, "energy": 36.185769, "activity_lines": [ 56.627667, 56.716364, 55.080333, 53.326387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.040001, "volume": 26414, "typical_volume": 26596.35, "trend": 52.018334, "fair_value": 45.802596, "relative_strength": 1.851475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.875448, "energy": 46.639525, "activity_lines": [ 57.506667, 57.089728, 55.673179, 53.79 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.300003, "volume": 20069, "typical_volume": 26590.6, "trend": 52.388, "fair_value": 46.014103, "relative_strength": 12.142596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.457193, "energy": 73.168593, "activity_lines": [ 60.134335, 58.541637, 56.803643, 54.646882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }